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The evolution of Ottoman-European market linkages, 1469-1914: evidence from dynamic factor models

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  • Li, Zhuo
  • Panza, Laura
  • Song, Yong

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between commodity markets in two key regions of the international economy during the 1469-1914 period: the Ottoman Empire and Europe. By providing evidence on what thus far has been largely a qualitative discussion, we propose the first comprehensive empirical analysis of the process of market integration between Istanbul and 19 European cities, using data on commodity baskets and a set of traded goods. By computing dynamic factor models using Bayesian inference we are able to overcome a series of data constraints, such as missing observations and small sample size. The results point to the existence of broad and persistent market linkages between the two regions throughout four and half centuries. We also find that market integration was negatively impacted by the intensity of Ottoman-European conflicts.

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  • Li, Zhuo & Panza, Laura & Song, Yong, 2017. "The evolution of Ottoman-European market linkages, 1469-1914: evidence from dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 80953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80953
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    Cited by:

    1. Panza, Laura, 2020. "From a common empire to colonial rule: commodity market disintegration in the Near East," CEPR Discussion Papers 15434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Integration; Ottoman Empire; Europe; Factor Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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