IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/67282.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rates Persistence in the West African Monetary Zone: A Revisit of the PPP Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Njindan Iyke, Bernard

Abstract

The purchasing power parity (PPP) is important in the development of key theories in economics. The balance of payment and the portfolio-balance theories, for example, are developed on the notion that PPP exists. Also, key exchange rate and trade policies are formulated on the basis that PPP holds. As The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone propose to form a monetary union—the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), the validity of PPP is crucial to prevent member countries from gaining arbitrages by trading with one another. This paper examines whether the PPP holds for these countries using a mixture of time series techniques over varying sample periods. Consistent with some existing studies, we find the PPP not to hold for these countries, implying that the WAMZ agenda may face some challenges, since member countries can potentially gain from trade and investment arbitrages by trading with one another.

Suggested Citation

  • Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Real Exchange Rates Persistence in the West African Monetary Zone: A Revisit of the PPP Puzzle," MPRA Paper 67282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67282/1/MPRA_paper_67282.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    4. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    5. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    6. Frederick Wallace, 2008. "Nonlinear unit root tests of PPP using long-horizon data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(33), pages 1-8.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-184, February.
    9. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
    10. McNown, Robert & S. Wallace, Myles, 1989. "National price levels, purchasing power parity, and cointegration: a test of four high inflation economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 533-545, December.
    11. Layton, Allan P. & Stark, Jonathan P., 1990. "Co-integration as an empirical test of purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 125-136.
    12. Nagayasu, Jun, 2002. "Does the Long-Run PPP Hypothesis Hold for Africa? Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Study," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 181-187, April.
    13. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:31:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    16. Hakkio, Craig, 1986. "Does the exchange rate follow a random walk? A Monte Carlo study of four tests for a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 221-229, June.
    17. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    18. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Mudziviri T. Nziramasanga, 2010. "Purchasing Power Parity In African Countries: Evidence From Panel Suradf Test," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 40-56, March.
    19. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
    20. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    21. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    22. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Christian J & Papell, David H, 2005. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 361-369, April.
    23. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    24. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    25. MO Odedokun, 2000. "Fulfilment of purchasing power parity conditions in Africa: the differential role of CFA and non-CFA membership," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(2), pages 213-234.
    26. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-948, December.
    27. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    28. Krugman, Paul R., 1978. "Purchasing power parity and exchange rates : Another look at the evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 397-407, August.
    29. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-1271, December.
    30. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
    31. Kargbo, Joseph M., 2003. "Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1673-1685, October.
    32. Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April.
    33. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2002. "Series‐specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-546, December.
    34. Paul Alagidede & George Tweneboah & Anokye M. Adam, 2008. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Convergence in the West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(3), pages 181-198, December.
    35. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    36. Holmes, Mark J, 2000. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold in African Less Developed Countries? Evidence from a Panel Data Unit Root Test," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(1), pages 63-78, March.
    37. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    38. Kim, Soyoung & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2010. "Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 555-569, April.
    39. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
    40. Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1994. "Purchasing power parity in high-inflation countries: further evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-422.
    41. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    42. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Su Zhou & Ali Kutan, 2007. "A Century of Purchasing Power Parity: Further Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(31), pages 1-9.
    43. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-1487, December.
    44. Peter Liu, 1992. "Purchasing power parity in Latin America: A co-integration analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(4), pages 662-680, December.
    45. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 2002. "Series-Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-546, December.
    46. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    47. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-695, November.
    48. Salehizadeh, Mehdi & Taylor, Robert, 1999. "A test of purchasing power parity for emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 183-193, April.
    49. Joseph M. Kargbo, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rate Policy Reforms In Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 258-281, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Njindan Iyke , Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2015. "A re-examination of long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis: the case of two Southern African countries," Working Papers 18980, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less‐Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, September.
    3. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    4. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    5. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Nam, Kiseok, 2010. "Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-768, October.
    6. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    7. Kul B. Luintel, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 161-185.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Joseph M. Kargbo, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rate Policy Reforms In Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 258-281, June.
    11. Lambelet, Jean-Christian & Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 8896, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    12. Frederick Wallace, 2013. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 779-802, December.
    13. Olivier Darné & Jean‐François Hoarau, 2007. "Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 383-395, October.
    14. David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
    15. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1063-1071.
    17. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Mudziviri T. Nziramasanga, 2010. "Purchasing Power Parity In African Countries: Evidence From Panel Suradf Test," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 40-56, March.
    18. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, "undated". "Purchasing Power Parity Revisited," Working Papers 2003-20, FEDEA.
    19. Paul Alagidede & George Tweneboah & Anokye M. Adam, 2008. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Convergence in the West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(3), pages 181-198, December.
    20. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chan Tze-Haw & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Re-examining purchasing power parity for East-Asian currencies: 1976-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 75-85.
    21. Lean Hooi Hooi & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Are Asian real exchange rates mean reverting? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2109-2120.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rates; Persistence; PPP Puzzle; WAMZ;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.