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الإنفاق العمومي والإستثمار الخاص اختبار أثر المزاحمة عبر المعاينة المعادة
[Public Spending and Private Investment: Test of Crowding-out Effects through Re-sampling]

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  • Ghassan, Hassan B.

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to test and evaluate the crowding-out effect of the investment expenditure in public sector on the investment effort by private sector by using data from Moroccan Economy. After the theoretical background of crowding-out effects in many domains of investment, we introduce the interests variables which express the budget policy of a government and monetary policy of the central bank, and shows the global effective demand addressed to economy. This requires the improvement of a likelihood private investment model and the specification of its shape from a Box-Cox transformation by using the weight average test LM. It has become clear that in the long run term the push effect dominates the crowding-out effect and this leads to a little increase in the elasticity of private investment reaches 0.06%. We have used the bootstrapping methodology to check the signs and the values of crowding-out parameters. Among the main causes which explain this small effect are the investors’ behaviour and their reactions vis-à-vis the real economic data and growth expectation, the nature of national and foreign markets of products and their competitiveness, and the nature and situation of finance market and banks, which has put, some extent, Moroccan economy into a “trap of liquidity” especially during the last few years.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56381/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 56381.

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Date of creation: 05 Feb 2002
Date of revision: 03 Dec 2002
Publication status: Published in Public Administration Journal 4.43(2003): pp. 727-754
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56381

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Keywords: Public Investment; Private Investment; Crowding-out; Box-Cox; Bootstrapping; Morocco.;

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  1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
  2. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Granger-causality in cointegrated VAR processes The case of the term structure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 263-268, November.
  3. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2001. "Bootstrap Tests: How Many Bootstraps?," Working Papers 1036, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Mario I. Blejer & Mohsin S. Khan, 1984. "Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión priva," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 379-403, June.
  5. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, 01.
  6. Erenburg, S. J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1995. "Public and private investment: Are there causal linkages?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-30.
  7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
  8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1987. "Implicit Alternatives and the Local Power of Test Statistics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1305-29, November.
  9. Christophe Hurlin, 1999. "La contribution du capital public à la productivité des facteurs privés : une estimation sur panel sectoriel pour dix pays de l'OCDE," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 49-65.
  10. Isabel Argimon & Jose Gonzalez-Paramo & Jose Roldan, 1997. "Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1001-1010.
  11. Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
  12. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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