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Testing Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Kenya: An ADRL Bounds Test Approach

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  • Mohan, Ramesh
  • Nandwa, Boaz

Abstract

Over the years, there has been extensive research on the relationship between a country’s export and economic growth with ambiguous and mixed results. Instead of using the conventional cointegration approach, this paper re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis for Kenya using autoregressive distributed lag (ADRL) bounds technique. This approach is capable of testing for the existence of a long-run relationship regardless of whether the underlying time series are individually I(1) or I(0). This enhances the stability and robustness of our results. In addition, we examine the Granger causality between exports and economic growth over the sample period. The results indicate that there exists a long-term relationship between GDP growth and exports, and it is unidirectional, running from exports to GDP growth. Hence, in the case of Kenya, export enhancing policies are recommended in promoting and sustaining economic growth.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5582.

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Date of creation: 03 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5582

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Keywords: Exports; economic growth and causality;

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  1. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
  2. Ahmad, Jaleel & Kwan, Andy C. C., 1991. "Causality between exports and economic growth : Empirical evidence from Africa," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 243-248, November.
  3. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
  4. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
  5. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1989. "Estimation of Long Run Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 345-50, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Akmal, Muhammad Shahbaz & Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Muhammad, 2009. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," MPRA Paper 16043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. HOUNKPODOTE, Hilaire & BATIONO, Rakissiwindé, 2009. "Heterogeneite De La Causalite Entre Depenses Publiques Et Croissance Economique Dans Les Pays De L'Uemoa:Quelles Implications Pour La Coordination Des Politiques Budgetaires
    [Heterogeneity Of The C
    ," MPRA Paper 26027, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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