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The Asian economy: trade structure interpreted by feedback loop analysis

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  • Sonis, Michael
  • Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins
  • Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.

Abstract

The recent discussions that focused on the problems of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT] together with the emergence of strengthened and expanded free trade areas [such as NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUL/MERCOSUR] have created the need for careful analysis of the nature of internal and external dependence among nations and, within any nation, among the constituent regions. The picture that is obtained from inspection of import and export flows is only one (and often the smaller) part of the nature of dependence; there is a need to consider the indirect effects and, in addition, the possible feedbacks that may accrue from expansion of links between any two countries rippling through a broader set of economies and returning to expand activity in the originating economy. However, until recently, a dearth of data precluded the type of analysis conducted here; the development of consistent intercountry input-output tables for Europe enabled the first attempt at an understanding of intercountry dependencies (see Sonis, Oosterhaven and Hewings, 1993). This paper will explore similar perspectives with a set of Asian intercountry input-output tables for 1985. In this paper, some new perspectives are advanced that provide a more comprehensive view of the interactions between the economies of Asia. The analysis focuses on the potential for uncovering alternative perspectives about the role of linkages and multipliers in input-output systems. The analysis draws on some pioneering work by Miyazawa in the identification of internal and external multiplier effects. Paths of direct and indirect dependency are revealed as well as the nature and strength of feedback loops. In addition, some potential exists for contibutions to the debate raised by Krugman (1991, 1993) on the role of regionalism versus multilaterialism. Using these methods, it is possible to provide insights into the way in which these economies are integrated, the strength of the integration and the potential consequences of action in one economy on the rest of the system. The analysis parallels some earlier work on the European economies and will provide the basis for future comparative analysis as updated tables are produced.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonis, Michael & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 1995. "The Asian economy: trade structure interpreted by feedback loop analysis," MPRA Paper 54756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Diamond, 1976. "Key Sectors In Some Underdeveloped Countries: A Comment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 762-764, January.
    2. Sonis, Michael & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 1993. "Hierarchies of Regional Sub-Structures and Their Multipliers within Input-output Systems Miyazawa Revisited," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 34(1), pages 33-44, June.
    3. Cella, Guido, 1984. "The Input-Output Measurement of Interindustry Linkages," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 73-84, February.
    4. Bullard, Clark W, III & Sebald, Anthony V, 1977. "Effects of Parametric Uncertainty and Technological Change on Input-Output Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 75-81, February.
    5. Simonovits, A, 1975. "A Note on the Underestimation and Overestimation of the Leontief Inverse," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 493-498, May.
    6. Clements, Benedict J., 1990. "On the decomposition and normalization of interindustry linkages," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 337-340, August.
    7. Hewings, Geoffrey J. D. & Fonseca, Manuel & Guilhoto, Joaquim & Sonis, Michael, 1989. "Key sectors and structural change in the Brazilian economy: A comparison of alternative approaches and their policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 67-90.
    8. Guccione, Antonio, 1986. "The Input-Output Measurement of Interindustry Linkages: A Comment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(4), pages 373-377, November.
    9. Guilhoto, Joaquim José M. & Fonseca, Manuel Alcino R. Da, 1987. "Uma análise dos efeitos econômicos de estratégias setoriais," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 41(1), January.
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    11. Bullard, Clark W & Sebald, Anthony V, 1988. "Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 708-712, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan A van der Linden & Jan Oosterhaven & Federico A Cuel & Geoffrey J D Hewings & Michael Sonis, 2000. "Fields of Influence of Productivity Change in EU Intercountry Input—Output Tables, 1970–80," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(7), pages 1287-1305, July.
    2. Sun, Caizhi & Yang, Yudi & Zhao, Liangshi, 2015. "Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 123-136.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Input-output; Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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