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Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies

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  • Worrell, DeLisle
  • Lowe, Shane
  • Naitram, Simon

Abstract

Insufficiency of foreign exchange may at times constrain the growth of small open economies which lack the domestic resources to produce import substitutes for their consumption, investment and input needs. This study explores the foreign exchange constraint in three small open Caribbean economies, using a structural model of the relationship of foreign exchange earnings and growth, and the economies’ openness to international markets. The model is used to evaluate the prospects of economic growth for these economies, based on the forecast availability of foreign exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Worrell, DeLisle & Lowe, Shane & Naitram, Simon, 2012. "Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies," MPRA Paper 52169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52169
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign currency constraint; exchange rate; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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