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Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS: A comparative analysis based on trade pattern and Thirlwall’s Law

Author

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  • Andre Nassif

    (Fluminense Federal University)

  • Carmem Aparecida Feijo

    (Fluminense Federal University)

  • Eliane Araújo

    (Maringá State University)

Abstract

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have become more than an acronym as their governments have been engaging in international and political negotiations as if they were a regional economic group. The main goal of this paper is to compare the structural change of the BRICS using econometric evidence based on estimates of Thirlwall’s law for the period 1995-2013. Thirlwall’s equations have become powerful indicators to evaluate whether a country is in a catching-up or falling-behind long-term path. Our basic assumption is that the way in which each country engages in international trade and global capital flows affects, positively or negatively, structural change and the catching up trajectory. Though our results cannot confirm Russia’s long-term growth trajectory, they do confirm that China and India have shown a rapid catching up path, while Brazil and South Africa have entered into a falling behind path over the period analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre Nassif & Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Eliane Araújo, 2016. "Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS: A comparative analysis based on trade pattern and Thirlwall’s Law," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(279), pages 373-421.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:pslqrr:2016:44
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_69.279_4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Edgar Demetrio Tovar-Garcia & Carlos A. Carrasco, 2019. "The Balance of Payments and Russian Economic Growth," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 524-541.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; economic development; catching up; falling behind; BRICS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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