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Trade Performance and Potential of the Philippines: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

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  • Deluna, Roperto Jr

Abstract

This study was conducted to investigate the issue of what Philippine merchandise trade flows would be if countries operated at the frontier of the gravity model. The study sought to estimate the coefficients of the gravity model. The estimated coefficients were used to estimate merchandise export potentials and technical efficiency of each country in the sample and these were also aggregated to measure impact of country groups, RTAs and inter-regional trading agreements. Result of the study shows that technical efficiency for all sample countries is relatively large with standard deviation from the mean of 35.02% suggesting that the frontier is not so distant. The most efficient countries in the sample which recorded more than 90% efficiency were Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Singapore, Denmark, Hongkong, Sweden and UK. In terms of country groups, RTA and Inter-regional trading agreements, APEC recorded as the most efficient trade agreement of the Philippines. The Philippines was also able to established strong link among countries in East Asia, members of AFTA. ASEAN and EU posed export potential. In a country level, China and members of the ASEAN such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia posed the highest export potential for merchandise exports. The significant determinants of these potentials are the expanding market of developing economies and lower trade cost. Then dominance of APEC countries in trade efficiency was verified by the result of the trade inefficiency effect model. Factors reducing technical inefficiencies were membership to APEC, reduction of corruption, and freer business environment. Membership to ASEAN and WTO turns out insignificant in reducing trade inefficiencies of the Philippine exports to member countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 51677.

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Date of creation: 30 Apr 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51677

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Keywords: Merchandise exports; Gravity; Stochastic; export potential; Philippine Trade;

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  1. Meeusen, Wim & van den Broeck, Julien, 1977. "Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Functions with Composed Error," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 435-44, June.
  2. Ekanayake, E. M. & Mukherjee, Amit, 2010. "Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: A Study of Economic Integration among Asian Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 627-643.
  3. Drysdale, Peter & Garnaut, Ross, 1982. "Trade Intensities and the Analysis of Bilateral Trade Flows in a Many-Country World : A Survey," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 22(2), pages 62-84, February.
  4. Kabir, Mahfuz & Salim, Ruhul, 2010. "Can Gravity Model Explain BIMSTEC’s Trade?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 144-166.
  5. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2009. "Gravity with zeros: estimating trade potential of CIS countries," Discussion Papers 16, Kyiv School of Economics.
  7. Heejoon Kang & Michele Fratianni, 2006. "International Trade Efficiency, the Gravity Equation, and the Stochastic Frontier," Working Papers 2006-08, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
  8. Kalirajan, K P & Shand, R T, 1999. " Frontier Production Functions and Technical Efficiency Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 149-72, April.
  9. Tomasz Brodzicki, 2009. "Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Polish Foreign Trade," Working Papers 0901, Economics of European Integration Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk, Poland.
  10. Shiro Armstrong & Peter Drysdale & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2008. "Asian Trade Structures and Trade Potential : An Initial Analysis of South and East Asian Trade," EABER Working Papers 21753, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  11. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
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