Does Match Uncertainty Increase Attendance? A Non-Regression Approach
AbstractThe uncertainty of outcome hypothesis predicts that more balanced sports matches should attract higher attendances, but the empirical evidence is mixed at best. First, this article shows that the inconsistent findings in the literature could be explained by wrongly specified regressions. Second, a new approach to analyzing the effect of match uncertainty is proposed. Using data about nine seasons of the English Championship, the article shows that in a pair of matches where both home teams are slight favorites, a switch of the corresponding away teams would decrease the total attendance by several percent, while the opposite is true if both home teams are underdogs or strong favorites. These results suggest that attendance demand is a bell-shaped function of match balance that is maximized if teams of the same quality play against each other.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48571.
Date of creation: 23 Jul 2013
Date of revision:
uncertainty of outcome; soccer; attendance demand;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CUL-2013-07-28 (Cultural Economics)
- NEP-SPO-2013-07-28 (Sports & Economics)
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