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Dinámica del Consumo de Gasolina en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua
[Gasoline Consumption Dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua]

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  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Munoz Sapien, Gabriel
  • Barraza de Anda, Martha P.
  • Dominguez Ruvalcaba, Lisbeily

Abstract

This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1 to 24 months into the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 46853.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2011
Date of revision: 15 Jun 2012
Publication status: Published in Estudios Fronterizos 26.13(2012): pp. 91-107
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46853

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Keywords: Gasoline Consumption; Border Economics;

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  1. Blum, U.C.H. & Foos, G. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1986. "Aggregate Time Series Gasoline Demand Models. Review of the Literature and New Evidence for West Germany," Cahiers de recherche 8617, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  12. Reyes-Loya, Manuel Lorenzo & Blanco, Lorenzo, 2008. "Measuring the importance of oil-related revenues in total fiscal income for Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2552-2568, September.
  13. Fullerton, T.M., 2007. "Empirical Evidence Regarding 9/11 Impacts on the Borderplex Economy," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 51-64.
  14. Banfi, Silvia & Filippini, Massimo & Hunt, Lester C., 2005. "Fuel tourism in border regions: The case of Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 689-707, September.
  15. De Leon, Marycruz & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," MPRA Paper 19861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Blanco-Gonzalez, Lorenzo & Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 2006. "Borderplex menu evidence for the law of one price," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 28-33, January.
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