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Aggregate impacts of recent U.S. natural gas trends

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  • Arora, Vipin

Abstract

Predictions about the macroeconomic impacts of recent U.S. natural gas trends vary widely. I re-evaluate the possible effects on U.S. economic activity using a standard general equilibrium model. Within this framework I show that increases in natural gas supply result in small-to-moderate economic gains, even with unemployment or under-utilized capital. Subsequent rises in economy-wide productivity are the key to magnifying the economic impacts of greater natural gas supply and resources. The 1995-2000 period, where U.S. productivity growth was driven by information technology, is a good starting point for comparing how American productivity may evolve because of natural gas.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43708.

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Date of creation: 11 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43708

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Keywords: Natural gas; general equilibrium; unemployment; variable capacity; shale; productivity;

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  1. repec:acb:camaaa:2011-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 511-526.
  3. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Erceg & Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "Oil Shocks and External Adjustment," 2008 Meeting Papers 945, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Vipin Arora & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2011. "Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model," CAMA Working Papers 2011-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Arora, Vipin & Lieskovsky, Jozef, 2012. "Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity," MPRA Paper 42659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kinnaman, Thomas C., 2011. "The economic impact of shale gas extraction: A review of existing studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1243-1249, May.
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