Probability and social science : methodologial relationships between the two approaches ?
AbstractThis work examines in depth the methodological relationships that probability and statistics have maintained with the social sciences. It covers both the history of thought and current methods. First, it examines in detail the history of the different paradigms and axioms for probability, from their emergence in the seventeenth century up to the most recent developments of the three major concepts: objective, subjective and logicist probability. It shows the statistical inference they permit, different applications to social sciences and the main problems they encounter. In the other side, from social sciences—particularly population sciences— to probability, it shows the different uses they made of probabilistic concepts during their history, from the seventeenth century, according to their paradigms: cross-sectional, longitudinal, event-history, hierarchical, contextual and multilevel approaches. While the ties may have seemed loose at times, they have more often been very close: some advances in probability were driven by the search for answers to questions raised by the social sciences; conversely, the latter have made progress thanks to advances in probability. This dual approach sheds new light on the historical development of the social sciences, probability and statistics, and on the enduring relevance of their links. It permits also to solve a number of methodological problems encountered all along their history.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43102.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Probability; Population sciences; Philosophy of science; Social science;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B0 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- B30 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2012-12-15 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-HME-2012-12-15 (Heterodox Microeconomics)
- NEP-HPE-2012-12-15 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Courgeau, Daniel, 2007. "Multilevel synthesis. From the group to the individual," MPRA Paper 43189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Grether, David M & Plott, Charles R, 1979.
"Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 623-38, September.
- Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R., . "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon," Working Papers 152, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- L H, 1957. "Un exemple de surestimation de la mortalité par la méthode de Halley," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 12(1), pages 141-142.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Hanson T. & Johnson W.O., 2002. "Modeling Regression Error With a Mixture of Polya Trees," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1020-1033, December.
- Henri Caussinus & Daniel Courgeau, 2010. "Estimer l'âge sans le mesurer en paléodémographie," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 65(1), pages 117-145.
- Daniel Courgeau, 1991. "Analyse des données biographiques erronées," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 46(1), pages 89-104.
- David R. Bellhouse, 2011. "A new look at Halley's life table," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(3), pages 823-832, 07.
- Hooten, Mevin B. & Wikle, Christopher K., 2010. "Statistical Agent-Based Models for Discrete Spatio-Temporal Systems," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 236-248.
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
- Henri Caussinus & Daniel Courgeau, 2010. "Estimating Age without Measuring it: A New Method in Paleodemography," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 65(1), pages 117-144.
- Ayton, Peter, 1997. "How to Be IncoherentandSeductive: Bookmakers' Odds and Support Theory," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 99-115, October.
- Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Zarkos, Spyros G, 1999. "R: Yet Another Econometric Programming Environment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 319-29, May-June.
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- Bateman, Bradley W., 1987. "Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 97-119, April.
- Jakub Bijak & Daniel Courgeau & Eric Silverman & Robert Franck, 2014. "Quantifying paradigm change in demography," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(32), pages 911-924, March.
- Jakub Bijak & Jason Hilton & Eric Silverman & Viet Dung Cao, 2013. "Reforging the Wedding Ring," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(27), pages 729-766, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.