Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Probability and social science : methodologial relationships between the two approaches ?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Courgeau, Daniel

Abstract

This work examines in depth the methodological relationships that probability and statistics have maintained with the social sciences. It covers both the history of thought and current methods. First, it examines in detail the history of the different paradigms and axioms for probability, from their emergence in the seventeenth century up to the most recent developments of the three major concepts: objective, subjective and logicist probability. It shows the statistical inference they permit, different applications to social sciences and the main problems they encounter. In the other side, from social sciences—particularly population sciences— to probability, it shows the different uses they made of probabilistic concepts during their history, from the seventeenth century, according to their paradigms: cross-sectional, longitudinal, event-history, hierarchical, contextual and multilevel approaches. While the ties may have seemed loose at times, they have more often been very close: some advances in probability were driven by the search for answers to questions raised by the social sciences; conversely, the latter have made progress thanks to advances in probability. This dual approach sheds new light on the historical development of the social sciences, probability and statistics, and on the enduring relevance of their links. It permits also to solve a number of methodological problems encountered all along their history.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43102/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43102.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43102

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Probability; Population sciences; Philosophy of science; Social science;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. L H, 1957. "Un exemple de surestimation de la mortalité par la méthode de Halley," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 12(1), pages 141-142.
  2. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
  3. Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Zarkos, Spyros G, 1999. "R: Yet Another Econometric Programming Environment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 319-29, May-June.
  4. Hooten, Mevin B. & Wikle, Christopher K., 2010. "Statistical Agent-Based Models for Discrete Spatio-Temporal Systems," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 236-248.
  5. Courgeau, Daniel, 2007. "Multilevel synthesis. From the group to the individual," MPRA Paper 43189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Daniel Courgeau, 1991. "Analyse des données biographiques erronées," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 46(1), pages 89-104.
  7. Henri Caussinus & Daniel Courgeau, 2010. "Estimating Age without Measuring it: A New Method in Paleodemography," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 65(1), pages 117-144.
  8. Hanson T. & Johnson W.O., 2002. "Modeling Regression Error With a Mixture of Polya Trees," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1020-1033, December.
  9. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  10. Bateman, Bradley W., 1987. "Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 97-119, April.
  11. Grether, David M & Plott, Charles R, 1979. "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 623-38, September.
  12. Henri Caussinus & Daniel Courgeau, 2010. "Estimer l'âge sans le mesurer en paléodémographie," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 65(1), pages 117-145.
  13. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
  14. Ayton, Peter, 1997. "How to Be IncoherentandSeductive: Bookmakers' Odds and Support Theory," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 99-115, October.
  15. David R. Bellhouse, 2011. "A new look at Halley's life table," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(3), pages 823-832, 07.
  16. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jakub Bijak & Daniel Courgeau & Eric Silverman & Robert Franck, 2014. "Quantifying paradigm change in demography," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(32), pages 911-924, March.
  2. Jakub Bijak & Jason Hilton & Eric Silverman & Viet Dung Cao, 2013. "Reforging the Wedding Ring," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(27), pages 729-766, October.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.