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Sustainable debt and deficits in emerging markets

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  • Goyal, Ashima

Abstract

Rising deficits and high debt ratios characterized currency crises in countries with low private savings rates and low population densities. But in emerging markets with large population transferring to more productive employment, sustainable debts and deficits may be higher. Debt ratios fall with growth rates. Higher private savings can compensate for government dissaving. An optimizing model of such an economy with dualistic labour markets and two types of consumers demonstrates these features but also shows debt ratios tend to rise in high growth phases. Policy conclusions for fiscal consolidation and coordination with monetary policy are derived in the Indian context.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40100.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Trade and Global Markets 2.4(2010): pp. 113-136
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40100

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Keywords: Deficits; Debt; Sustainability; Monetary-Fiscal Policy; Emerging Markets;

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References

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  1. Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, J David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2005. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 5212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2009. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus," CEPR Discussion Papers 7509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ashima Goyal, 2008. "The Structure of inflation, information and labour markets: Implications for monetary policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  5. Ashima Goyal, 2008. "The Natural Interest Rate in Emerging Markets," Working Papers id:1675, eSocialSciences.
  6. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
  7. Annicchiarico Barbara & Marini Giancarlo & Piergallini Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Fiscal Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-42, February.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Closed versus Open Economies: An Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 8604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Ashima Goyal, 2007. "A General equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2007-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  2. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
  3. Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Performance in South Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22779, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  4. Goyal, Ashima, 2012. "Propagation Mechanisms in Inflation: Governance as key," MPRA Paper 46360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2012. "Stability and policy rules in emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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