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Asymmetric demographic shocks and institutions: The impact on international capital flows and welfare

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  • Arezki, Rabah

Abstract

This paper examines the consequences of an asymmetric negative fertility shock on capital formation, saving/investment imbalance, and welfare. The framework of analysis is a Diamond-type overlapping-generations small open economy with capital market imperfection. The capital market imperfection is modelled through a symmetric wedge between foreign investor and domestic investor return on capital. The shock is transmitted to the small open economy depending on whether the wedge is below a given threshold. If the wedge is not too high, capital first flows in the small open economy to exploit the di¤erence in returns on capital. After the shock has occurred, capital is repatriated in order to �nance the old age consumption of rest of the world investors. If capital flows internationally, lifetime utility in the small open economy decreases unambiguously for individuals born one period before the shock occurs. Provided that the small open economy is initially below its golden rule, individuals born after the time the shock has occurred experience an increase in their lifetime utility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27683.

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Date of creation: 25 Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27683

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Keywords: population aging; capital market imperfection; open economy; capital flows; welfare;

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  1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  2. Serdar Sayan & Turalay Kenc, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small Countries : An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," Departmental Working Papers, Bilkent University, Department of Economics 985, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  3. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Wolfenson, 2000. "Investor Protection and Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 7974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Arezki, Arezki, 2010. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 27682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Galor, Oded, 1986. "Time preference and international labor migration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
  9. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Rabah, Arezki, 2011. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 79-93, June.
  2. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590843, Tilburg University.

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