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Accounting for latent classes in movie box office modeling

Author

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  • Antipov, Evgeny
  • Pokryshevskaya, Elena

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of unobserved heterogeneity in film characteristics influence on box-office. We argue that the analysis of pooled samples, most common among researchers, does not shed light on underlying segmentations and leads to significantly different estimates obtained by researchers running similar regressions for movie success modeling. For instance, it may be expected that a restrictive MPAA rating is a box office poison for a family comedy, while it insignificantly influences an action movie‟s revenues. Using a finite mixture model we extract two latent groups, the differences between which can be explained in part by the movie genre, the source, the creative type and the production method. Based on this result, the authors recommend developing separate movie success models for different segments, rather than adopting an approach, that was commonly used in previous research, when one explanatory or predictive model is developed for the whole sample of movies.

Suggested Citation

  • Antipov, Evgeny & Pokryshevskaya, Elena, 2010. "Accounting for latent classes in movie box office modeling," MPRA Paper 27644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27644
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morduch, Jonathan J. & Stern, Hal S., 1997. "Using mixture models to detect sex bias in health outcomes in Bangladesh," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 259-276, March.
    2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    3. W. D. Walls, 2005. "Modelling heavy tails and skewness in film returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1181-1188.
    4. W. D. Walls & A. DeVany, "undated". "Big budgets, big openings, and legs: Analysis of the blockbuster strategy," Working Papers 2014-57, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 23 Sep 2014.
    5. Mohanbir S. Sawhney & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1996. "A Parsimonious Model for Forecasting Gross Box-Office Revenues of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 113-131.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hofmann, Julian & Clement, Michel & Völckner, Franziska & Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten, 2017. "Empirical generalizations on the impact of stars on the economic success of movies," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 442-461.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    finite mixture model; box office; latent class; movie success; quantile regression; unobserved heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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