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Effects of Volatility of Exports in the Philippines and Thailand

Author

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  • Sinha, Dipendra

Abstract

There have been numerous studies on the relationship between volatility of exports and economic growth. Most of these studies have used cross-section data. Recently, some studies have used time series data to study the relationship. However, there have been no studies which have used the GARCH methodology to study export volatility. This paper fills the void. It uses quarterly data for the Philippines and Thailand to study the effects of export volatility. We find that for both countries, the shock to volatility of growth of exports is permanent. Also, past volatility is significant in predicting future volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Effects of Volatility of Exports in the Philippines and Thailand," MPRA Paper 2563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2563
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2563/1/MPRA_paper_2563.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-828, July.
    4. Sinha, D., 1999. "Export Instability, Investment and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Time Series Analysis," Papers 799, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olajide S. Oladipo, 2017. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 322, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; volatility; exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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