IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/22407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gold and the U.S. Dollar: Tales from the turmoil

Author

Listed:
  • Marzo, Massimiliano
  • Zagaglia, Paolo

Abstract

We investigate how the relation between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar has been affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We use spot prices of gold and spot bilateral exchange rates against the Euro and the British Pound to study the pattern of volatility spillovers. We estimate the bivariate structural GARCH models proposed by Spargoli e Zagaglia (2008) to gauge the causal relations between volatility changes in the two assets. We also apply the tests for change of co-dependence of Cappiello, Gerard and Manganelli (2005). We document the ability of gold to generate stable comovements with the Dollar exchange rate that have survived the recent phases of market disruption. Our findings also show that exogenous increases in market uncertainty have tended to produce reactions of gold prices that are more stable than those of the U.S. Dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2010. "Gold and the U.S. Dollar: Tales from the turmoil," MPRA Paper 22407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22407/1/MPRA_paper_22407.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_026 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
    4. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    5. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2014. "Measuring Comovements by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 645-678.
    6. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    7. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    8. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    10. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    11. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    12. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    13. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
    14. Davidson, Sinclair & Faff, Robert & Hillier, David, 2003. "Gold factor exposures in international asset pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 271-289, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hatice Gaye Gencer & Zafer Musoglu, 2014. "Volatility Transmission and Spillovers among Gold, Bonds and Stocks: An Empirical Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 705-713.
    3. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    4. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    5. Tim Pullen & Karen Benson & Robert Faff, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Investment Characteristics of Alternative Gold Assets," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(1), pages 76-92, March.
    6. Chiang, Thomas C., 2022. "The effects of economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk and pandemic upheaval on gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    8. Semeyutin, Artur & Downing, Gareth, 2022. "Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    10. Zhu, Yanhui & Fan, Jingwen & Tucker, Jon, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy on gold price dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-331.
    11. Qureshi, Saba & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Qureshi, Fiza, 2018. "Does gold act as a safe haven against exchange rate fluctuations? The case of Pakistan rupee," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 685-708.
    12. Mohamed Arbi Madani & Zied Ftiti, 2019. "The Generalisation of the DMCA Coefficient to Serve Distinguishing Between Hedge and Safe Haven Capabilities of the Gold," Papers 1912.12590, arXiv.org.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & Gkillas, Konstantinos, 2020. "Gold-oil dependence dynamics and the role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from a Markov-switching time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    15. Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2018. "Gold futures returns and realized moments: A forecasting experiment using a quantile-boosting approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 196-212.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    17. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.
    18. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Can gold hedge and preserve value when the US dollar depreciates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 168-173.
    19. He, Qing & Guo, Yongxiu & Yu, Jishuang, 2020. "Nonlinear dynamics of gold and the dollar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M. & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2015. "The gold price in times of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 329-339.
    21. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gold; exchange rates; GARCH; quantile regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.