Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections
AbstractThis paper presents results illustrating a close relationship between economic and technical errors in receipts projections made by the OMB and the CBO. The specific source appears to be the relationship between economic and technical errors for personal income tax receipts. Receipts projections generally are efficient in the use of prior information, although some evidence exists to suggest that OMB economic receipts revisions are related to prior economic information. The results indicate a greater sensitivity of changes in receipts projections to changes in the performance of the economy than typically realized.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22004.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in National Tax Journal 2.LVI(2003): pp. 337-353
Tax receipts; forecasts; budget;
Other versions of this item:
- Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships between Economic and Technical Receipts Revisions in Federal Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(2), pages 337-53, June.
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series
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