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Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections

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  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

This paper presents results illustrating a close relationship between economic and technical errors in receipts projections made by the OMB and the CBO. The specific source appears to be the relationship between economic and technical errors for personal income tax receipts. Receipts projections generally are efficient in the use of prior information, although some evidence exists to suggest that OMB economic receipts revisions are related to prior economic information. The results indicate a greater sensitivity of changes in receipts projections to changes in the performance of the economy than typically realized.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections," MPRA Paper 22004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22004
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22004/1/MPRA_paper_22004.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, Bryan & Ghysels, Eric, 1995. "Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 17-31, February.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J., 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(4), pages 765-782, December.
    3. Kasten, Richard A. & Weiner, David & Woodward, G. Thomas, 1999. "What Made Receipts Boom and When Will They Go Bust?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(3), pages 339-348, September.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Calomiris, Charles W. & Hassett, Kevin A., 2002. "Marginal Tax Rate Cuts and the Public Tax Debate," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 55(N. 1), pages 119-131, March.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 42905, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 43539, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Donihue, Michael & Kitchen, John, 1999. "The Troika process: Economic models and macroeconomic policy in the USA," MPRA Paper 22216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Calomiris, Charles W. & Hassett, Kevin A., 2002. "Marginal Tax Rate Cuts and the Public Tax Debate," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(1), pages 119-131, March.
    10. Kasten, Richard A. & Weiner, David & Woodward, G. Thomas, 1999. "What Made Receipts Boom and When Will They Go Bust?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 3), pages 339-48, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kitchen, John, 2003. "A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions," MPRA Paper 21070, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax receipts; forecasts; budget;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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