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Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections

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  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

This paper presents results illustrating a close relationship between economic and technical errors in receipts projections made by the OMB and the CBO. The specific source appears to be the relationship between economic and technical errors for personal income tax receipts. Receipts projections generally are efficient in the use of prior information, although some evidence exists to suggest that OMB economic receipts revisions are related to prior economic information. The results indicate a greater sensitivity of changes in receipts projections to changes in the performance of the economy than typically realized.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22004.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in National Tax Journal 2.LVI(2003): pp. 337-353
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22004

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Keywords: Tax receipts; forecasts; budget;

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References

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  1. Calomiris, Charles W. & Hassett, Kevin A., 2002. "Marginal Tax Rate Cuts and the Public Tax Debate," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 55(N. 1), pages 119-131, March.
  2. Auerbach, Alan Jeffrey, 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics qt8h845262, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  3. Campbell, Bryan & Ghysels, Eric, 1995. "Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 17-31, February.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kasten, Richard A. & Weiner, David & Woodward, G. Thomas, 1999. "What Made Receipts Boom and When Will They Go Bust?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 3), pages 339-48, September.
  6. Donihue, Michael & Kitchen, John, 1999. "The Troika process: Economic models and macroeconomic policy in the USA," MPRA Paper 22216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Kitchen, John, 2003. "A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions," MPRA Paper 21070, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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