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The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy

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  • Tarassow, Artur

Abstract

The paper attempts to verify Richard Goodwin's (1967) endogenous business cycle theory which states that the driving forces behind fluctuations are class struggles between capitalists and workers about income distribution. Based on a Marxian profit-led model, non-linear differential equations lead to endogenous cycles in the wage-share-employment-space which can be observed empirically. Applying a bivariate vector autoregressive model we analyze the relationship between real unit labor costs and the employment rate for the US economy over a period from 1948:1 to 2006:4. Granger-causality tests, orthogonalized impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition are conducted for the raw data as well as the cyclical components of the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filter methods. We verify the profit-led character of the US goods market and find that income distribution is driven by labor market dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21012.

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Date of creation: 26 Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21012

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Keywords: Business cycle; Goodwin; Econometrics; Marxian Economics; Post Keynesian Economics; Functional income distribution;

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 506-522, December.
  4. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Working Papers 14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 349-76, May.
  6. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 139-173, 06.
  7. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy-A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, 07.
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