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Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries

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  • Harvie, David
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    Abstract

    Following Desai (1984), Goodwin's simple "predator-prey" growth cycle model of the economy (1967) is tested, using post-war data for ten OECD countries--Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, the UK and the US. At a quantitative level, Goodwin's model is found not to be adequate: (i) estimated parameter values poorly predict the cycles' centres; and (ii) Goodwin's restrictive assumptions are not justified. However, at a qualitative level, the evidence presented here for the existence of Goodwin-type cycles is extremely encouraging, justifying both existing theoretical extensions of Goodwin's model and further empirical work in this area. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Cambridge Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 349-76

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:24:y:2000:i:3:p:349-76

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    Cited by:
    1. Willis, Geoff, 2011. "Why money trickles up – wealth & income distributions," MPRA Paper 30851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2013. "Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2088-2103.
    3. Mario García Molina & Eleonora Herrera, 2008. "Are There Goodwin Employment-Distribution Cycles? Theoretical And Empirical Evidence," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO - ESCUELA DE ECONOMÍA 004685, UN - RCE - CID.
    4. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria, 2007. "A Note on the Stability Properties of Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model," NIPE Working Papers 5/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Mariolis, Theodore & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2010. "Measures of production price-labour value deviation and income distribution in actual economies: theory and empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 43718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohun, Simon & Veneziani, Roberto, 2006. "Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004," MPRA Paper 30444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Piero Manfredi & Luciano Fanti, 2006. "Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 536-563, November.
    8. Rodousakis, Nikolaos, 2010. "Testing Goodwin’s Growth Cycle Disaggregated Models: Evidence from the Input-Output Table of the Greek Economy for the Year 1988," MPRA Paper 24171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Carlo V. FIORIO & Simon MOHUN & Roberto VENEZIANI, 2013. "Social Democracy and Distributive Conflict in the UK, 1950-2010," Departmental Working Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 16 May 2013.
    10. Manfredi, Piero & Fanti, Luciano, 2006. "The complex effects of demographic heterogeneity on the interaction between the economy and population," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 148-173, June.
    11. Tarassow, Artur, 2010. "The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy," MPRA Paper 21012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00149942 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Keen, Steve, 2002. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth: Carl Chiarella and Peter Flaschel, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 434 pages, index, $90, ISBN 0521 643511," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 466-468, April.
    14. Daniele Tavani, 2013. "Bargaining over productivity and wages when technical change is induced: implications for growth, distribution, and employment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 207-244, July.
    15. Bródy, András & Ábel, István, 2008. "A Goodwin-modell szimmetriái. Gazdasági paradigmák ellentéte és békülése
      [The symmetries of the Goodwin Model. Contradiction and reconciliation among economic paradigms]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 333-343.
    16. Desai, Meghnad & Henry, Brian & Mosley, Alexander & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2006. "A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2661-2670, December.
    17. Luís Francisco Aguiar, 2001. "The Stability Properties of Goodwin's Growth Cycle Model," NIPE Working Papers 10/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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