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Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries

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  • Harvie, David
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    Abstract

    Following Desai (1984), Goodwin's simple "predator-prey" growth cycle model of the economy (1967) is tested, using post-war data for ten OECD countries--Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, the UK and the US. At a quantitative level, Goodwin's model is found not to be adequate: (i) estimated parameter values poorly predict the cycles' centres; and (ii) Goodwin's restrictive assumptions are not justified. However, at a qualitative level, the evidence presented here for the existence of Goodwin-type cycles is extremely encouraging, justifying both existing theoretical extensions of Goodwin's model and further empirical work in this area. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Cambridge Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 349-76

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:24:y:2000:i:3:p:349-76

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    Cited by:
    1. Carlo V. FIORIO & Simon MOHUN & Roberto VENEZIANI, 2013. "Social Democracy and Distributive Conflict in the UK, 1950-2010," Departmental Working Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 16 May 2013.
    2. Rodousakis, Nikolaos, 2010. "Testing Goodwin’s Growth Cycle Disaggregated Models: Evidence from the Input-Output Table of the Greek Economy for the Year 1988," MPRA Paper 24171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Willis, Geoff, 2011. "Why money trickles up – wealth & income distributions," MPRA Paper 30851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tarassow, Artur, 2010. "The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy," MPRA Paper 21012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Piero Manfredi & Luciano Fanti, 2006. "Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 536-563, November.
    6. Keen, Steve, 2002. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth: Carl Chiarella and Peter Flaschel, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 434 pages, index, $90, ISBN 0521 643511," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 466-468, April.
    7. Mariolis, Theodore & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2010. "Measures of production price-labour value deviation and income distribution in actual economies: theory and empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 43718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Daniele Tavani, 2013. "Bargaining over productivity and wages when technical change is induced: implications for growth, distribution, and employment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 207-244, July.
    9. Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2013. "Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2088-2103.
    10. Nicolas Canry, 2005. "Wage-led Regime, Profit-led Regime and Cycles: a Model(French title for the publication: Régime wage-led, régime profit-led et cycles : un modèle)," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00149942, HAL.
    11. Desai, Meghnad & Henry, Brian & Mosley, Alexander & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2006. "A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2661-2670, December.
    12. Manfredi, Piero & Fanti, Luciano, 2006. "The complex effects of demographic heterogeneity on the interaction between the economy and population," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 148-173, June.
    13. Mohun, Simon & Veneziani, Roberto, 2006. "Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004," MPRA Paper 30444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Luís Francisco Aguiar, 2001. "The Stability Properties of Goodwin's Growth Cycle Model," NIPE Working Papers 10/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Mario García Molina & Eleonora Herrera, 2008. "Are There Goodwin Employment-Distribution Cycles? Theoretical And Empirical Evidence," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO - ESCUELA DE ECONOMÍA 004685, UN - RCE - CID.
    16. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria, 2007. "A Note on the Stability Properties of Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model," NIPE Working Papers 5/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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