How to feed the world in 2050: Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets - A longer temr outlook
AbstractThe recent commodity boom was the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Although most prices have declined sharply since their mid-2008 peak, they are still considerably higher than 2003, the beginning of the boom. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled by numerous other factors including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion in many countries, and, perhaps, investment fund activity. On the other hand, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, adverse weather conditions, global stock declines to historical lows and government policies, including export bans and prohibitive taxes, accelerated the price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally. This paper concludes that the increased link between energy and non-energy commodity prices, strong demand by developing countries - when the current economic downturn reverses course - and changing weather patterns will be the dominant forces that are likely to shape developments in commodity markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19019.
Date of creation: 12 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
commodity prices; long-term prospects; global economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2009.
"Weakly relative poverty,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4844, The World Bank.
- Baffes, John, 2007.
"Oil spills on other commodities,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 126-134, September.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994.
"The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices,"
6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September.
- Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007.
"Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4392, The World Bank.
- Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?," Working Paper Series RP2008/29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037.
- Deaton, A., 1999.
"Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica,"
186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
- Baffes, John, 2009. "More on the energy / non-energy commodity price link," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4982, The World Bank.
- Radetzki,Marian, 2008. "A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521880206, October.
- L. Randall Wray, 2008. "The Commodities Market Bubble: Money Manager Capitalism and the Financialization of Commodities," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_96, Levy Economics Institute, The.
- Lluch, Constantino, 1973. "The extended linear expenditure system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 21-32, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.