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  • Baffes, John

Abstract

This paper examines the energy/non-energy commodity price link, based on a reduced form econometric model and using annual data from 1960 to 2008. The transmission elasticity from energy to the non-energy index is estimated at 0.28. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index exhibited the largest elasticity (0.55), followed by precious metals (0.46), food (0.27), metals and minerals (0.25), and raw materials (0.11). By contrast, only a few price indices responded strongly to inflation, although the trend parameter estimate (often viewed as a proxy for technological progress) is negative for agriculture and positive for metals. A key implication of the pass-through results is that for as long as energy prices remain elevated, most non-energy commodity prices are expected to be high.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4982.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4982

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Keywords: Markets and Market Access; Energy Production and Transportation; Emerging Markets; E-Business; Commodities;

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References

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  1. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 6924, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Chunrong Ai & Arjun Chatrath & Frank Song, 2006. "On the Comovement of Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 574-588.
  3. Deaton, A., 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica," Papers 186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  4. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Metals Prices, Efficiency and Cointegration: Some Evidence from the London Metal Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 235-39, June.
  5. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, William J. & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Methodology for Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48326, World Bank.
  7. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  8. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
  9. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-91, May-June.
  10. John Baffes, 1997. "Explaining stationary variables with non-stationary regressors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 69-75.
  11. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  12. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  13. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September.
  14. John Baffes & Bruce Gardner, 2003. "The transmission of world commodity prices to domestic markets under policy reforms in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 159-180.
  15. Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 318-327, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Karoline Krätschel & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "Long-run Trends or Short-run Fluctuations – What Establishes the Correlation between Oil and Food Prices?The Interplay of Standardized Tests and Incentives – An Econometric Analysis with Data from," Ruhr Economic Papers 0357, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2011. "Markets vs. Malthus: Food Security and the Global Economy," Policy Briefs PB11-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Burns, Andrew & Baffes, John, 2009. "How to feed the world in 2050: Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets - A longer temr outlook," MPRA Paper 19019, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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