Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy
AbstractThis paper studies data revision properties of GDP growth and inflation as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the Indian economy. We find that data revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation in India are significant. The results show that revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation can not be characterized as either containing pure news or pure noise. We also find that there is a significant predictable component in revisions to GDP growth and inflation. Our findings suggest that if the Reserve Bank of India were to follow a Taylor rule for its monetary policy formulation, then the interest rate based on the preliminary data would be much lower than the one based on the fully revised data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16099.
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Data Revisions; Real-Time Data; Monetary Policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2009-07-11 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-MON-2009-07-11 (Monetary Economics)
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