News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements
AbstractRevisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 776.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-10-28 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Glejser, H & Schavey, P, 1974. "An Analysis of Revisions of National Accounts Data for 40 Countries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 20(3), pages 317-32, September.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003.
"Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133
Bank for International Settlements.
- André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Lessons and Challenges," Working Papers Series 53, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Pierre van der Eng, 1999. "Some Obscurities in Indonesia's New National Accounts," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 91-106.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001.
"One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
101, Central Bank of Chile.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003.
"Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rómulo A. Chumacero & Francisco A. Gallego, 2001.
"Trends and Cycles in Real-Time,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
130, Central Bank of Chile.
- Lourdes Urdaneta, 1976. "Some Aspects Of The Revision Of The System Of National Accounts In Venezuela," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 22(1), pages 37-47, 03.
- Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009. "Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.