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An Empirical Evaluation of Trade Potential in Southern African Development Community

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  • Simwaka, Kisu

Abstract

This paper attempts to estimate the trade potential expected from the SADC FTA. Specifically, the study investigates what the Southern African countries stand to gain by way of increases in intra-regional trade if all trade barriers are removed. In order to assess the trade potential compared to its current level, a gravity model has been estimated. Results show that the observed intra-regional trade is lower than its potential. The results suggest that there is trade potential in the sub-region. There is no question that an FTA will enhance the prospects for increasing intra-regional trade. The results are in agreement with findings by Evans (1997) who found that that the FTA is likely to lead to trade creation, and also African Development Bank (1993), whose results found that there is considerable potential for the non-Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries to switch supply from third countries to South Africa. The results, however, differ with findings by Chauvin (2002) and Cassim (2001) whose results indicated that SADC trade potentials are rather small, especially for South African exports. They also differ with Elbadawi (1997) whose results indicate that SADC did not have a significant effect on trade among its members.

Suggested Citation

  • Simwaka, Kisu, 2010. "An Empirical Evaluation of Trade Potential in Southern African Development Community," MPRA Paper 15894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15894
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    Cited by:

    1. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla & Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali, 2018. "Assessing the Intra-Arab Trade Integration and Potential: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model," Working Papers 1247, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Nov 2018.
    2. Sultan, Maryam & Munir, Kashif, 2015. "Export, Import and Total Trade Potential of Pakistan: A Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 66621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yvonne Umulisa, 2020. "Estimation of the East African Community's trade benefits from promoting intra‐regional trade," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 55-66, March.
    4. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla, 2016. "Trade between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia: Prospects and Challenges for Trilateral Trade Integration," Working Papers 1057, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 2016.
    5. H.G. Jensen & R. Sandrey & N. Vink, 2012. "The welfare impact of a Free Trade Agreement: 'Cape to Cairo'," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 1-18, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Potential; Gravity model; SADC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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