Information Cycles and Depression in a Stochastic Money-in-Utility Model
AbstractThis paper presents a simple model in which the learning behavior of agents generates fluctuations in money demand and possibly causes a prolonged depression. We consider a stochastic Money-in-Utility model, where agents receive utility from holding money only when a liquidity shock (e.g., a bank run) occurs. Households update the subjective probability of the shock based on the observation and change their money demand accordingly. In this setting, we first derive a stationary cycles under perfect price adjustment, which is characterized by periods of gradual inflation and sudden sporadic falls of the price level. When the nominal stickiness is introduced, the liquidity shock is followed by a period of low output. We show that the adverse effects of the shocks are largest when they occur in succession in an economy which has enjoyed a long period of stability.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13485.
Date of creation: 18 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Bayesian Learning; Money Demand; Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equations; Markov Modulated Poisson Processes; Partial Delay Differential Equations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-02-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-02-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2009-02-28 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2009-02-28 (Macroeconomics)
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