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Information Cycles and Depression in a Stochastic Money-in-Utility Model

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Author Info
Horii, Ryo
Ono, Yoshiyasu

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Abstract

This paper presents a simple model in which the learning behavior of agents generates fluctuations in money demand and possibly causes a prolonged depression. We consider a stochastic Money-in-Utility model, where agents receive utility from holding money only when a liquidity shock (e.g., a bank run) occurs. Households update the subjective probability of the shock based on the observation and change their money demand accordingly. In this setting, we first derive a stationary cycles under perfect price adjustment, which is characterized by periods of gradual inflation and sudden sporadic falls of the price level. When the nominal stickiness is introduced, the liquidity shock is followed by a period of low output. We show that the adverse effects of the shocks are largest when they occur in succession in an economy which has enjoyed a long period of stability.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13485.

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Date of creation: 18 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13485

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian Learning; Money Demand; Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equations; Markov Modulated Poisson Processes; Partial Delay Differential Equations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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  1. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Walde, Klaus, 1999. "Optimal Saving under Poisson Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 194-217, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Driffill, John & Miller, Marcus, 1993. "Learning and Inflation Convergence in the ERM," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 369-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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