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Endogenously-Timed Herding And The Synchronization Of Investment Cycles

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Author Info
Süssmuth, Bernd
Abstract

This paper combines the recent garne theoretic approach of endogenous timing of entry to herding models with a rnacroeconornic model of investrnent cycles. The integrated description embodies the qualitative resuits of the rnyopic herding model in a medium run investment objective of smooth ing the capital stock adjustment process. lt features a completely disaggregated structure and bears the potential to synchronize individual cyclic investing be haviors. This synchronization via nonlinear feedback from the aggregate ac tivity can serve as an explanation of the inexistent cancelling of heterogeneous sectoral quasi-cycles. The model others an explanatory base for the constitu tion of the observed strong cyclicality of the aggregate investment series by a multitude of different periodicities and phases on the individual level. Finally, based on recent ndings of the herding literature, the stabilization potential of third parties' information revelation is conjectured.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 24.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:24

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Related research
Keywords: herding ; investment cycles ; nonlinear entrainment;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John V, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 777-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lee, I.H. & Chalkley, M., 1994. "Asymmetric Business Cycles," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9411, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  3. Zeira, Joseph, 1994. "Informational Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(1), pages 31-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
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  5. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "Delay and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(2), pages 169-98, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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