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Estimating Price Elasticities of Supply for Cotton: A Structural Time-Series Approach

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Author Info
Shepherd, Ben

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Abstract

The Kalman Filter is used to estimate a structural time-series model of cotton supply for 30 countries and 16 aggregated regions. Estimated short run supply elasticities with respect to the world price are presented for all 46 countries and regions. While they are broadly within the expected range in light of previous work, they indicate extensive cross-country and regional heterogeneity, as well as considerable parameter uncertainty in some cases. Finally, some proposals are made for incorporating both the core estimates and their sampling distributions into applied equilibrium models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1252.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1252

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Related research
Keywords: Cotton; price elasticity of supply; structural time-series model; Kalman Filter.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ben Shepherd, 2005. "The Impact of US Subsidies on the World Cotton Market: A Reassessment," International Trade 0511012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Baffes, John & Gohou, Gaston, 2005. "The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3534, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 107-164. [Downloadable!]
  7. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gillson, I & Poulton, Colin & Balcombe, Kelvin & Page, S, 2004. "Understanding the impact of Cotton Subsidies on developing countries," MPRA Paper 15373, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Paudel, Laxmi & Houston, Jack E. & Devkota, Nirmala, 2005. "Dairy Supply Response under Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis," 2005 Annual Meeting, February 5-9, 2005, Little Rock, Arkansas 35531, Southern Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stephen Tokarick, 2003. "Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 03/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter Hooper & Karen Johnson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. repec:rus:hseeco:123040 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Delpeuch, Claire, 2007. "EU and US safeguards against Chinese textile exports: What consequences for West African cotton-producing countries?," MPRA Paper 2319, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shepherd, Ben & Delpeuch, Claire, 2007. "Subsidies and regulatory reform in West African cotton: What are the development stakes?," MPRA Paper 2289, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

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