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Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion

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  • Stavarek, Daniel

Abstract

This paper assesses exchange rate development and volatility in six new EU member states (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) during the period November 1996 - April 2006. The study is motivated by the unavoidable participation of the new member states’ currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and fulfillment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion. The development of exchange rates is examined by the calculation of various rates of return and the exchange rate volatility is analyzed using moving average standard deviations of the annualized daily returns of the nominal bilateral exchange rates. The results suggest that the dilemma of “participation or non-participation in ERM II” have been solved properly so far by all countries analyzed. The three ERM II participating currencies (SIT, CYP, SKK) entered into the mechanism at the optimal time of stable exchange rate development and low volatility. On the other hand, the admissible fluctuation band ± 2.25 % seems to be still too narrow for the remaining three currencies (CZK, HUF, PLN), thus the currencies should remain out of ERM II for some time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1202.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1202

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Keywords: exchange rates; rate of return; volatility; ERM II; exchange rate stability criterion; new EU Member States;

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  1. Glauco De vita & Andrew Abbott, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 62-81, 02.
  2. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2005. "How Credible Are the Exchange Rate Regimes of the New EU Countries? : Empirical Evidence from Market Sentiment," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(3), pages 55-77, May.
  3. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
  4. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1998. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows," IMF Working Papers 98/107, International Monetary Fund.
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