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The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review

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Author Info
Peter Backé () (DG-International and European Relations, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Christian Thimann () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Olga Arratibel () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Arnaud Mehl () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Carolin Nerlich () (DG-International and European Relations, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper reviews the strategies announced by the ten countries joining the European Union in May 2004 with regard to their intentions for participation in ERM II and the adoption of the euro. The paper examines the economic rationale of the monetary integration strategies declared by most acceding countries with a view to identifying also their potential risks. It does so by making use of several different approaches, including a short review of nominal convergence and a more extensive discussion from an optimum currency area perspective. An important part of the analysis is devoted to the implications of real convergence – i.e. catching-up growth in income and adjustment of the real economic structures towards those prevailing in the euro area – on the patterns of economic dynamics in acceding countries. Other aspects covered are the risks for external competitiveness in the convergence process and the appropriate pace of fiscal consolidation.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 10.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20040010

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  4. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2002. "'New' views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 138, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Mélitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "On the Way of EMU Enlargement towards CEECs: What is the Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bas Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Cindy Moons, 2008. "Accession to the euro-area: a stylized analysis using a NK model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother, 2005. "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 473, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Damjan Kozamernik, 2004. "The ERM II issues: An interpretation of the Slovenian approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(4), pages 268-279, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Reiner Martin & Ludger Schuknecht & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in Boom and Bust episodes," Working Paper Series 813, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know – and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2006. "Long-run money demand in the new EU Member States with exchange rate effects," Working Paper Series 628, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Larry Sawers, 2006. "Inequality and the Transition: Regional Development in Lithuania," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 37-51, July. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vladimir Lavrac, 2004. "Fulfillment of Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Acceding Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp21, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stavarek, Daniel, 2006. "Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion," MPRA Paper 1202, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Van Aarle B. & Garretsen H. & Moons C., 2007. "Accession to the Euro-Area: A Stylized Analysis Using a NK Model," Working Papers 2007015, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Olegs Tkacevs, 2006. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Prices: Does the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Matter in Latvia?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-36, July. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sergio Rossi, 2004. "Monetary integration strategies and perspectives of new EU countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 443-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jurgita Jurgutyte, 2006. "Lithuania's Track to the Euro and the Endogeneity Hypothesis," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 53-69, July. [Downloadable!]
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  18. Andrea M. Maechler & Srobona Mitra & DeLisle Worrell, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 07/248, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2006. "The Effect of Latvian Pension Reform on Savings and Government Budget," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 3-21, July. [Downloadable!]
  20. Eduard Hochreiter & Alfred Sitz, 2004. "Monetary policy and EMU enlargement: The adoption of the euro," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(4), pages 263-267, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Bonpasse, Morrison, 2007. "The Single Global Currency - Common Cents for the World (2007 Edition)," MPRA Paper 5879, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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