IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjapxx/v25y2020i4p675-695.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate risk and commodity trade between U.S. and India: an asymmetry analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Sujata Saha

Abstract

Research on the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows has now entered into a new direction of asymmetry analysis. It has been argued by previous researchers, that the rate at which trade flows respond to an increase in volatility could be different than the rate at which they respond to a decrease in volatility, hence asymmetric effects. We consider trade flows of 65 industries that trade between India and the U.S. to show that indeed short-run effects of exchange rate volatility are asymmetric in 58 U.S. exporting industries to India and 55 U.S. importing industries from India. However, short-run effects last into the long run in 45 exporting and 33 importing industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and commodity trade between U.S. and India: an asymmetry analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 675-695, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:25:y:2020:i:4:p:675-695
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2019.1701307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860.2019.1701307
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13547860.2019.1701307?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1044, April.
    2. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    4. Christine Sauer & Alok K. Bohara, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    5. Luiz Lima & Claudio Foffano Vasconcelos & Jose Simão & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2016. "The quantitative easing effect on the stock market of the USA, the UK and Japan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(6), pages 1006-1021, November.
    6. Nazif Durmaz, 2015. "Industry levelJ-curve in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 689-706, September.
    7. Andros Gregoriou, 2017. "Modelling non-linear behaviour of block price deviations when trades are executed outside the bid-ask quotes," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 206-213, May.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Glauco De vita & Andrew Abbott, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 62-81, February.
    10. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2010. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on World and Intra-trade Flows of SAARC Countries," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 67-86.
    11. G De Vita & A Abbott, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Exports: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 69-78, March.
    12. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    14. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    16. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
    17. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    18. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2013. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-93.
    19. Hamid Baghestani & Samer Kherfi, 2015. "An error-correction modeling of US consumer spending: are there asymmetries?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1078-1094, November.
    20. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rajarshi Mitra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Risk and Commodity Trade Between the U.S. and India," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 71-80, February.
    23. Ali, Heba, 2019. "Does downside risk matter more in asset pricing? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 154-174.
    24. Doroodian, K., 1999. "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 465-474.
    25. Abdulrahman Al-Shayeb & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2016. "Trade openness and economic development in the UAE: an asymmetric approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 587-597, September.
    26. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    27. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    28. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    29. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    30. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2015. "Are there asymmetries in fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 303-321, May.
    31. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ltaifa, Nabil, 1992. "Effects of exchange rate risk on exports: crosscountry analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1173-1181, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of India with each of its fourteen partners," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 66-85, January.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize, 2020. "On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 913-939, March.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Parveen Akhtar & Sana Ullah & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2020. "Exchange Rate Risk and Uncertainty and Trade Flows: Asymmetric Evidence from Asia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2019. "Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Arize, Augustine C., 2022. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 41-65, January.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and commodity trade between United States and Australia: An asymmetric analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1509-1700, June.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkey–EU commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 429-482, May.
    12. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China’s bilateral trade with its major partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 653-669.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Korea‐U.S. commodity trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 594-629, December.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli & Farhang Niroomand, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 38-62, March.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi, 2020. "Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the U.S. and Germany: asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-124, February.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and Japan–U.S. commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3287-3318, November.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2022. "The U.S.‐Canadian trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 841-866, March.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 943-973, November.
    20. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:25:y:2020:i:4:p:675-695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.