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Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

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Author Info
Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe (Monash University)
Param Silvapulle (Monash University)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical nature of exchange rate returns. Using a three-state regime switching threshold model, we examine the response of import prices, the degree of pass-through in particular, to different volatility regimes, low, medium and high. The results show that the exchange rate pass- through coefficient is significantly different across all three volatility regimes only during recession.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0406006.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0406006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 29
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. repec:pal:jintbs:v:30:y:1999:i:2:p:249-268 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Jimmy Ran & Ronald Balvers, 2000. "Exchange Rate Shocks and the Speed of Trade Price Adjustment," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 200-211, July.
  3. Athukorala, Premachandra & Menon, Jayant, 1994. "Pricing to Market Behaviour and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 271-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe & Param Silvapulle, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Manufactured Import Prices: The Case of Japan," International Trade 0406006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-54, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 2002. "Does Black Market Exchange Rate Volatility Deter the Trade Flows? Iranian Experience," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2249-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Corinne Krupp & Carl Davidson, 1996. "Strategic Flexibility and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 436-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Barkoulas, John T., 2001. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 565-576, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  13. David C. Parsley & Ziyong Cai, 1995. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty And Traded Goods Prices," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 27-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Federico Marongiu, 2004. "Devaluación e Inflacion en Argentina despues de la Convertibilidad," Macroeconomics 0404013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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