Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mailand, Wilhelm
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Mit dem vorliegenden Aufsatz wird das Ziel verfolgt, die Erklärung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Unternehmensinvestitionen (Ausrüstungsinvestitionen der Unternehmen und Wirtschaftsbauinvestitionen) durch die Einbeziehung von Variablen, mit denen sich Unsicherheit abbilden läßt, zu ergänzen. In der gegenwärtigen konjunkturellen Situation wird angesichts der Unzulänglichkeit die Investitionsschwäche trotz positiver Rahmenbedingungen (niedriges Zinsniveau, fairer Wechselkurs, moderate Lohnentwicklung, Exportwachstum etc.) zu erklären, häufig das Argument angeführt, daß die "Unsicherheit" die Unternehmer zu ihrer abwartenden Haltung in bezug auf Investitionsausgaben bringe. Theoretisch unterstützt wird diese Argumentation durch die Modelle der neuen Investitionstheorie, die ein Investitionsvorhaben als Realoption betrachten und zu der Aussage kommen, daß unter entsprechenden Annahmen mit zunehmender Unsicherheit eine zeitliche Verzögerung der Investitionstätigkeit einhergeht (vgl. Dixit und Pindyck (1994) für eine umfangreiche Darstellung). Kerngedanke ist in diesem Fall, daß sich Sachinvestitionen durch Irreversibilität der Anschaffungsausgaben auszeichnen. Besteht nun für den Unternehmer die Möglichkeit die Investitionsentscheidung in einem gewissen zeitlichen Rahmen zu verschieben, so kann es sich bei höherer Unsicherheit lohnen, die Option zu investieren aufrechtzuerhalten und zusätzliche Informationen abzuwarten. --

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19196/1/57.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 57.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26305

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, D-20347 Hamburg
    Phone: 0049-40-42834-0
    Fax: 0049-40-42834-451
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/20
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    3. Driver, Ciaran & Moreton, David, 1991. "The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1452-59, November.
    4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    6. Rich, Robert W. & Raymond, Jennie & Butler, J. S., 1991. "Generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 179-185, February.
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    9. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
    10. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1993. "Survey vs ARCH Measures of Inflation Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 341-53, August.
    11. Cuthbertson, K. & Gasparro, D., 1995. "Fixed investment decisions in UK manufacturing: The importance of Tobin's Q, output and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 919-941, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Jörg Döpke & Jan Gottschalk, 1999. "Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 906, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.