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Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability

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  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Caglayan, Mustafa
  • Barkoulas, John T.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of permanent and transitory components of the exchange rate on firms' profitability under imperfect information. Utilizing a signal extraction framework, we show that the variances of these components of the exchange rate process will have indeterminate effects on the firm's growth rate of profits, but will have predictable effects on its volatility. An increase in the variance of the permanent (transitory) component in the exchange rate process leads to greater (lesser) variability in the growth rate of the firm's profits, thus establishing that the source of exchange rate volatility matters in analyzing its effects. Implications of our theoretical findings for the empirical modeling of the underlying relationships are discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 565-576

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:23:y:2001:i:4:p:565-576

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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References

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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  8. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
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  10. Bailey, Warren & Chung, Y. Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political Risk, and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 541-561, December.
  11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  14. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
  15. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2005. "The Effects of (within and with EU) Regional Integration: Impact on Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility, Institutional Quality and Growth for MENA Countries," Working Paper Series RP2005/73, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Nikkinen, Jussi & Sahlstrom, Petri & Vahamaa, Sami, 2006. "Implied volatility linkages among major European currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 87-103, April.
  3. Raphael Anton Auer, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 2012-01, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Bagella , Michele & Becchetti , Leonardo & Hasan , Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Research Discussion Papers 15/2004, Bank of Finland.
  5. Prashanth Mahagaonkar & Rainer Schweickert & Aditya S. Chavali, 2009. "Sectoral R&D Intensity and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel Study for OECD Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1531, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Elbeck, Matt, 2010. "Advancing the design of a dynamic petro-dollar currency basket," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1938-1945, April.
  7. Jamal Bouoiyour & Serge Rey, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 302-334.
  8. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
  9. Juncal Cunado & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2003. "Structural Changes in Volatility and Stock Market Development: Evidence for Spain," Faculty Working Papers 06/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  10. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2006. "Real effective exchange rate volatility and growth: A framework to measure advantages of flexibility vs. costs of volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1149-1169, April.
  11. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Rey, Serge, 2005. "Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc
    [Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case]
    ," MPRA Paper 49503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe & Param Silvapulle, 2004. "Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan," International Finance 0406006, EconWPA.
  13. Laborde, David & Rey, Serge, 2001. "Transmission internationale de la volatilité des prix d’actifs financiers : les relations entre les marchés français et américains de 1997 à 2000
    [Volatility and cross correlation across ass
    ," MPRA Paper 30284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Iftekhar Hasan, 2004. "The Anticipated and Concurring Effects of the EMU," CEIS Research Paper 55, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  15. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.

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