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Estimación del equilibrio del mercado inmobiliario
[Real estate market equilibrium estimation]

Author

Listed:
  • Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium of the housing market by using the months’ supply indicator as the key variable, since it establishes a relationship between supply and demand. It is understood that this relationship tends to equilibrium in the long-run, enabling the estimation of the equilibrium parameter through several statistical techniques. Finally, by comparing the estimated equilibrium values with aggregated market data it is possible to identify periods of boom and bust in the real estate market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2018. "Estimación del equilibrio del mercado inmobiliario [Real estate market equilibrium estimation]," MPRA Paper 118260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118260
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118260/5/DT_equilibrio101_mpra_v2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
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    4. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    5. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    6. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    8. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    9. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-1292, December.
    10. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    11. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Aaron Hedlund, 2016. "The cyclical dynamics of illiquid housing, debt, and foreclosures," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(1), pages 289-328, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; real estate; equilibrium; months’ supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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