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Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator

Author

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  • Anastasiou, Dimitris
  • Drakos, Konstantinos
  • Kapopoulos, Panayotis

Abstract

We introduce a novel tourism-specific business expectations sentiment index and explore whether it can operate as a leading indicator for international tourist arrivals in Greece. Using monthly data spanning 2002-2021 and employing a VAR model, we document that this newly introduced tourism-specific business expectations serves as a leading indicator, whose higher levels foreshadow increased demand for international travel. We also find that its inclusion in a tourism-oriented model increases forecasting accuracy, which can be utilized by travel agent businesses, local government officials and policymakers in their efforts to predict tourist arrivals in Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasiou, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2022. "Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator," MPRA Paper 113860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113860
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leading Indicator; Expectations; Tourist Arrivals; VAR; Greece;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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