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Empirical Testing of the Lucas Critique for the U.S. Economy, 1986 – 2005

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Dahiya, Dhruv

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Abstract

Lucas critique suggests parameter instability in usual policy multiplier based models, where the multipliers are estimated by running a regression of output on the relevant/hypothesized policy variables. I aim to test this implication for the U.S. economy using a simple aggregate demand and supply model, with rational expectations as the mechanism of expectation formation, given a money supply specification. The relevant data set (for inferential purposes) is quarterly, 1986:1 – 2005:4, with the exact model specification chosen from Heijdra and Ploeg.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10676.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10676

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E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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