IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/105273.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Взаимосвязь Экономического Развития И Возрастной Структуры Населения Регионов Российской Федерации
[Relationship between economic development and the population age structure of Russian Federation regions]

Author

Listed:
  • Alexey, Kurbatskiy
  • Nikita, Artamonov
  • Timur, Khalimov

Abstract

This paper focuses on the interconnection between the economic growth and the age structure. It is assumed that while modeling economic growth, we should take in consideration such indicators, as the ones that describe age distribution of people, which also, in some degree, explain the supply of human capital. In this paper we carried out an econometric analysis of the age structure’s impact on economic development in regions of Russian Federation based on panel data from 2001 to 2016. The panel has been tested for unit root (CIPS-test) and spatial correlations (Moran’s I, Moran’s test, RW-test). The basic regression model in the paper is the panel linear regression with spatial lag and spatial autocorrelated error term (SARAR regression). The choice of regression model is based on the results of panel data tests. Although the coefficients for some age groups are significant in the model, their marginal responses are insignificant due to spillover effects. As a result, it is shown, that the greatest positive effect on economic growth is from age category 25-39 years. The impacts of the significant age categories are estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexey, Kurbatskiy & Nikita, Artamonov & Timur, Khalimov, 2020. "Взаимосвязь Экономического Развития И Возрастной Структуры Населения Регионов Российской Федерации [Relationship between economic development and the population age structure of Russian Federation ," MPRA Paper 105273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105273
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105273/1/MPRA_paper_105273.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    4. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    6. Millo, Giovanni, 2017. "A simple randomization test for spatial correlation in the presence of common factors and serial correlation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 28-38.
    7. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    2. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    3. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    4. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Africa'S Prospects For Enjoying A Demographic Dividend," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    6. Munir Ahmad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2019. "Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 753-772, April.
    7. Mine Yilmazer & Serkan inar, 2015. "Human Capabilities and Economic Growth: A Comparative Human Capability Index," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 843-853.
    8. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2010. "Contribution of health to economic development: A survey and overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-52.
    9. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    10. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    11. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ni Lar & Sereyvuth Ky, 2021. "Revisiting the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia: a panel vector‐autoregressive approach with a saving channel," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 77-94, November.
    12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2009. "Contribution of health to economic development: a survey and overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    16. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Dynamic Growth Regions and Factors Explaining their Growth Performance," Papers DYNREG02, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Wei, Zheng & Hao, Rui, 2010. "Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 472-491, December.
    18. Nadide Halıcı-Tülüce & İbrahim Doğan & Cüneyt Dumrul, 2016. "Is income relevant for health expenditure and economic growth nexus?," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 23-49, March.
    19. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Resource Wealth and Entrepreneurship: A Blessing or a Curse?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201224, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    20. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demography; economic growth; aging; age structure; GRP.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105273. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.