IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/10272.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Asean-5 Future Currency: Maastricht Criteria

Author

Listed:
  • M., Azali
  • Wong, K. S. Kelly
  • Lee, C.
  • Shafinaz, Ahmad Nazar

Abstract

In this recent decade, many of the economists and policymakers attempted to investigate the suitability of the East Asian region to form a currency union and based on the European countries experience as a benchmark. This study aims to investigate the long-run real convergence in GDP per capita growth among Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines, over 1978 to 2004. The Dickey-Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were conducted at first difference of GDP per capita for each country; the results demonstrated that all countries GDP per capita are stationary at first difference. The results of the Bound Testing Approach (Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL)) indicated that there is a long run relationship between variables in the Maastricht Criteria. The results showed that interest rate, inflation rate and the debt ratio experience that negative relationship to the GDP per capita. However, the exchange rate and surplus (or deficit) ratio shown the positive related to the GDP per capita. Therefore, the findings showed the ASEAN 5 countries have fulfilled the Maastricht Criteria with consistent to expected sign(s) except for Singapore’ exchange rate and Indonesia’s debt ratio. Hence, those ASEAN 5 countries in this study have potential to form a single currency.

Suggested Citation

  • M., Azali & Wong, K. S. Kelly & Lee, C. & Shafinaz, Ahmad Nazar, 2007. "The Asean-5 Future Currency: Maastricht Criteria," MPRA Paper 10272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10272/1/MPRA_paper_10272.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Subhash Sharma & Soo Chua, 2000. "ASEAN: economic integration and intra-regional trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 165-169.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    5. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1989. "Estimation of Long Run Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 345-350, August.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. U. Tun Wai, 1959. "The Relation between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(2), pages 302-317, October.
    8. Fabella, Raul, 2002. "Monetary Cooperation in East Asia: A Survey," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 13, Asian Development Bank.
    9. Chee-Keong Choong & Siong-Hook Law & Zulkornain Yusop & Soo Siew Choo, 2005. "Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: A Revisit," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 26-42, November.
    10. Satya Paul & Colm Kearney & Kabir Chowdhury, 1997. "Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1387-1401.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Thiam Hee NG, 2002. "Should The Southeast Asian Countries Form A Currency Union?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 113-134, June.
    13. J.S. Eades, 2005. "East Asia," Chapters, in: James G. Carrier (ed.), A Handbook of Economic Anthropology, chapter 34, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    15. John Thornton & Alessandro Goglio, 2002. "Regional bias and intra-regional trade in southeast Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 205-208.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zaenal Mutaqin & Masaru Ichihashi, 2012. "The Role of Maastricht Criteria and Membership in Determining Convergence in the Eurozone and ASEAN: A Panel Data Analysis," IDEC DP2 Series 2-7, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3067-3075, August.
    2. Shailender Singh & Amar Singh, 2015. "Causal Nexus between Inflation and Economic Growth of Japan," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 265-278, Autumn.
    3. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the role of foreign direct investment and exports in Malaysia's economic growth," MPRA Paper 38536, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2009. "The Effects Of Disaggregated Savings On Economic Growth In Malaysia - Generalised Variance Decomposition Analysis," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 04-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon, 2007. "The stability of money demand function in Japan: Evidence from rolling cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 19807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. González-Gómez, Manuel & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad, 2013. "Estimating the long-run impact of forest fires on the eucalyptus timber supply in Galicia, Spain," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 149-161.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Partial versus full system modelling of cointegrated systems an empirical illustration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 177-210, September.
    9. Abu N. M. Wahid & Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim, 2011. "Inflation and Financial Sector Correlation: The Case of Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 145-152.
    10. S. Mahdavi, 2000. "Do German, Japanese, and U.S. export prices asymmetrically respond to exchange rate changes? Evidence from aggregate data," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 70-81, January.
    11. Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Huma Ghulam & Maryam Batool & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Abdullah Ejaz & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau, 2021. "Investigating the Causal Linkages among Inflation, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Pakistan under the Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Wavelet Transformation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    13. Hrushikesh Mallick, 2008. "Inflation and growth dynamics: the Indian experience," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 163-172.
    14. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    16. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    17. Odedoyin, Stephen, 2012. "Changing Fiscal Policy Actions, Economic Growth and Inflation in Nigeria, 1980-2009," MPRA Paper 94431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2012.
    18. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.
    19. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2016. "Coal consumption and economic growth in South Africa: An empirical investigation," Energy & Environment, , vol. 27(2), pages 215-226, March.
    20. Amiri, Arshia & Zibaei, Mansour, 2012. "Granger causality between energy use and economic growth in France with using geostatistical models," MPRA Paper 36357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Union (MU); Bound Test (ARDL); Maastricht Criteria; Single Currency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.