IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pie/dsedps/2024-304.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Campigotto
  • Marco Catola
  • Andrè Cieplinksi
  • Simone D'Alessandro
  • Tiziano Distefano
  • Pietro Guarnieri
  • Till Heydenreich

Abstract

There is currently no consensus among scholars on how to achieve a just low-carbon transition. To address this issue, this paper subjects a macrosimulation model to an extensive sensitivity analysis and then fits random forests to the simulation results to identify policy combinations that can reduce carbon emissions while promoting income equality. Our find- ings indicate that interventions aimed at supporting low-income groups result in an increase in these groups’ energy demand and emissions, and that this negative effect should be off-set through a faster deployment of renewable energy sources and measures that redistribute income away from top earners. Our analysis also confirms the importance of well-known policies such as carbon taxation and working time reduction. On the other hand, we do not find energy efficiency to be crucial in achieving inequality and emission reduction goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Campigotto & Marco Catola & Andrè Cieplinksi & Simone D'Alessandro & Tiziano Distefano & Pietro Guarnieri & Till Heydenreich, 2024. "Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition," Discussion Papers 2024/304, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/304
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2024-304.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fremstad, Anders & Paul, Mark, 2019. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on Inequality," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 88-97.
    2. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    3. Uddin, Md. Main & Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Income inequality and CO2 emissions in the G7, 1870–2014: Evidence from non-parametric modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Roberton C. Williams III & Hal Gordon & Dallas Burtraw & Jared C. Carbone & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2015. "The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across Income Groups," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 195-214, March.
    5. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    6. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 191-207.
    7. Cieplinski, André & D'Alessandro, Simone & Guarnieri, Pietro, 2021. "Environmental impacts of productivity-led working time reduction," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    8. Callan, Tim & Lyons, Sean & Scott, Susan & Tol, Richard S.J. & Verde, Stefano, 2009. "The distributional implications of a carbon tax in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 407-412, February.
    9. Simone D’Alessandro & André Cieplinski & Tiziano Distefano & Kristofer Dittmer, 2020. "Feasible alternatives to green growth," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 329-335, April.
    10. Daniel W. O’Neill & Andrew L. Fanning & William F. Lamb & Julia K. Steinberger, 2018. "A good life for all within planetary boundaries," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(2), pages 88-95, February.
    11. Jeroen den Bergh & Ivan Savin, 2021. "Correction to: Impact of Carbon Pricing on Low-Carbon Innovation and Deep Decarbonisation: Controversies and Path Forward," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(4), pages 717-717, December.
    12. Armon Rezai & Sigrid Stagl, 2016. "Ecological Macreconomics: Introduction and Review," Ecological Economics Papers ieep9, Institute of Ecological Economics.
    13. Samuel Bowles & Wendy Carlin, 2020. "What Students Learn in Economics 101: Time for a Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 176-214, March.
    14. Hafner, Sarah & Anger-Kraavi, Annela & Monasterolo, Irene & Jones, Aled, 2020. "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    15. Terry Barker & Eva Alexandri & Jean-Francois Mercure & Yuki Ogawa & Hector Pollitt, 2016. "GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 393-414, May.
    16. Jeroen den Bergh & Ivan Savin, 2021. "Impact of Carbon Pricing on Low-Carbon Innovation and Deep Decarbonisation: Controversies and Path Forward," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(4), pages 705-715, December.
    17. Hardt, Lukas & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2017. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 198-211.
    18. Ravallion, Martin & Heil, Mark & Jalan, Jyotsna, 2000. "Carbon Emissions and Income Inequality," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 651-669, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hafner, Sarah & Anger-Kraavi, Annela & Monasterolo, Irene & Jones, Aled, 2020. "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Cieplinski, André & D'Alessandro, Simone & Dwarkasing, Chandni & Guarnieri, Pietro, 2023. "Narrowing women’s time and income gaps: An assessment of the synergies between working time reduction and universal income schemes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Cieplinski, A. & D’Alessandro, S. & Distefano, T. & Guarnieri, P., 2021. "Coupling environmental transition and social prosperity: a scenario-analysis of the Italian case," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 265-278.
    4. Omer, Ozlem & Capaldo, Jeronim, 2023. "The risks of the wrong climate policy for developing countries: Scenarios for South Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    5. Oberholzer, Basil, 2023. "Post-growth transition, working time reduction, and the question of profits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Cieplinski, André & D'Alessandro, Simone & Guarnieri, Pietro, 2021. "Environmental impacts of productivity-led working time reduction," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    7. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Distefano, Tiziano & D’Alessandro, Simone, 2023. "Introduction of the carbon tax in Italy: Is there room for a quadruple-dividend effect?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Gräbner-Radkowitsch, Claudius & Strunk, Birte, 2023. "Degrowth and the Global South: The twin problem of global dependencies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    10. Larch, Mario & Löning, Markus & Wanner, Joschka, 2018. "Can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 118-130.
    11. Naqvi, Asjad & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2018. "Directed Technological Change in a Post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-188.
    12. Lukács, Bence & Antal, Miklós, 2023. "The practical feasibility of working time reduction: Do we have sufficient data?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    13. Olk, Christopher & Schneider, Colleen & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "How to pay for saving the world: Modern Monetary Theory for a degrowth transition," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120343, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Svartzman, Romain & Dron, Dominique & Espagne, Etienne, 2019. "From ecological macroeconomics to a theory of endogenous money for a finite planet," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 108-120.
    15. Barrett, Adam B., 2018. "Stability of Zero-growth Economics Analysed with a Minskyan Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 228-239.
    16. Kennedy, Christopher, 2022. "The Intersection of Biophysical Economics and Political Economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    17. Adam B. Barrett, 2017. "Stability of zero-growth economics analysed with a Minskyan model," Papers 1704.08161, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    18. Stratford, Beth, 2020. "The Threat of Rent Extraction in a Resource-constrained Future," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    19. Gatti, Donatella, 2022. "Going green and (un)equal ? Political coalitions, redistribution, and the environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ecological macroeconomics; just transition; inequality; scenario discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dspisit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.