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Fertility and public debt

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  • Fanti Luciano e Spataro Luca

Abstract

Public debt and fertility are two issues of major concern in the current debate about economic policy, especially in countries with below replacement fertility and large debt. In this paper we show that public debt is in general harmful for fertility, in that debt issuing almost ever crowds out fertility. The relationship is reversed only if debt is sufficiently low and the share of capital (labor) in the economy is sufficiently low (high). Hence, our analysis would recommend that developed, capital intensive economies (such as OECD countries) aiming at a fertility recovery should reduce national debt, while developing, labor intensive economies, aiming at reducing fertility, should increase (reduce) national debt only if they are debt virtuous (vicious).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy in its series Discussion Papers with number 2009/89.

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Date of creation: 21 Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2009/89

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Keywords: overlapping generations; endogenous fertility; debt.;

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References

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  1. Michael Brauninger, 2005. "The Budget Deficit, Public Debt, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(5), pages 827-840, December.
  2. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
  3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  4. Tetsuo Ono, 2003. "Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 363-387, 05.
  5. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Holger Strulik, 2003. "Mortality, the Trade-off between Child Quality and Quantity, and Demo-economic Development," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 499-520, November.
  7. Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Demographic Transition, Stagnation, and Demoeconomic Cycles in a Model for the Less Developed Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 397-413, April.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Want more babies? Reduce public debt
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-10-28 14:32:00
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Cited by:
  1. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2011. "The Optimal Level of Debt in an OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 351-369, 08.
  2. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2013. "From Malthusian to Modern fertility: When intergenerational transfers matter," Discussion Papers, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy 2013/163, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

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