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On the relationship between fertility and public national debt

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  • Fanti, Luciano
  • Spataro, Luca

Abstract

Public debt and fertility are two issues of major concern in the current economic policy debate, especially in countries with below-replacement-fertility and large debt (which appears further enlarged as a consequence of the recent world financial distress 2008–2009). In this paper we show that, at the steady state, public debt is in general harmful for fertility, in that debt issuing almost ever crowds fertility. The relationship is however reversed if debt is sufficiently low and the share of capital (labor) in the economy is sufficiently low (high). Hence, our analysis would recommend that developed, capital intensive economies (such as OECD countries) aiming at a fertility recovery should reduce national debt, while developing, labor intensive economies, aiming at reducing fertility, should increase (reduce) national debt only if they are debt virtuous (vicious).

Suggested Citation

  • Fanti, Luciano & Spataro, Luca, 2013. "On the relationship between fertility and public national debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 843-849.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:843-849
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.003
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    Cited by:

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    4. Bellido, Héctor & Molina, José Alberto & Solaz, Anne & Stancanelli, Elena, 2016. "Do children of the first marriage deter divorce?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 15-31.
    5. Martin Fochmann & Florian Sachs & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Joachim Weimann, 2018. "The two sides of public debt: Intergenerational altruism and burden shifting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Marina Morales, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of fertility outcomes in Spain," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(4), pages 315-329, July.
    7. Nakabayashi, Masaki, 2019. "From family security to the welfare state: Path dependency of social security on the difference in legal origins," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-293.
    8. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti & Pier Mario Pacini, 2017. "Savings, fertility and public policy in an OLG small open economy," Discussion Papers 2017/230, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Morales, Marina, 2020. "Intergenerational transmission of fertility decisions in Spain," MPRA Paper 102046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aso Hiroki & Ueshina Mitsuru, 2023. "Fertility, fiscal deficit and sustainability of public debt in an endogenous growth model," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 9(3), pages 224-238, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping generations; Endogenous fertility; Debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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