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Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles

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  • Piero Manfredi
  • Luciano Fanti

Abstract

The issue of the onset of Malthusian cycles is investigated by means of a demo-economic model incorporating the age structure of the population. It is shown that the delayed recruitment into the labour force is a major source of demo-economic instability, potentially leading to sustained oscillations. We also compare different modelling strategies for age structure, by showing that the results of our general model are borne out by those provided by a simpler model, based on a representation of age structure via time delays, which allows a deeper mathematical analysis. This suggests that simplified delay models may be of great help in understanding the qualitative properties of complex age structure models. Copyright � 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Metroeconomica.

Volume (Year): 57 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 536-563

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Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:57:y:2006:i:4:p:536-563

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  1. Chu, C Y Cyrus & Lu, Huei-Chung, 1995. "Toward a General Analysis of Endogenous Easterlin Cycles," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 35-57, February.
  2. Alfred Tella, 1964. "The relation of labor force to employment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 17(3), pages 454-469, April.
  3. Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 349-76, May.
  4. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184, April.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Foundations, Synthesis, Perspectives," Working Paper Series 85, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Feichtinger, Gustav & Dockner, Englebert J, 1990. "Capital Accumulation, Endogenous Population Growth, and Easterlin Cycles," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 73-87, August.
  7. Charles I. Jones, . "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth," Working Papers 98014, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  8. Ronald Lee, 1974. "The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo, the boom and the bust," Demography, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 563-585, November.
  9. Day, R.H. & Kim, K.H. & Macunovich, D., 1990. "Complex Demoeconomic Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers 143, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  10. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
  11. James Frauenthal & Kenneth Swick, 1983. "Limit cycle oscillations of the human population," Demography, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 285-298, August.
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Cited by:
  1. María José Roa García & Dulce Saura & Francisco J. Vázquez, 2008. "Economic Growth, Labour Market and Demographic Patterns," Working papers DTE 457, CIDE, División de Economía.
  2. Fanti, Luciano & Manfredi, Piero, 2009. "Neoclassical production theory and growth with unemployment: The stability issue revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 126-135, June.
  3. Juan Gabriel Brida & Juan S. Pereyra & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2011. "Learning strategies in modelling economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 546-559.
  4. Fanti, Luciano & Spataro, Luca, 2013. "On the relationship between fertility and public national debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 843-849.

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