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Inflation in Pakistan: High-Frequency Estimation and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Sonan Memon

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)

Abstract

I begin by motivating the utility of high-frequency inflation estimation and reviewing recent work done at the State Bank of Pakistan for inflation forecasting and now-casting GDP using machine learning (ML) tools. I also present stylised facts about the structure of historical and especially recent inflation trends in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonan Memon, 2022. "Inflation in Pakistan: High-Frequency Estimation and Forecasting," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:12, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2022:12
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast Accuracy; Forecasts of Inflation in Pakistan; High Frequency; Hyperinflation; Inflation Estimation and Forecasting; Machine Learning; Synthetic Data; VAR Models; Web Scrapping and Scanner Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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