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The Next Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Yochanan Shachmurove

    (Department of Economics, the City Collge of the City University of New York)

Abstract

The examination of U.S. crises reveals that the current financial crisis follows past patterns. An investment bubble creates excess demand for new financing instruments. During the railroad bubbles of the nineteenth century loans were issued at a pace higher than many companies could pay back. The current housing bubble originated from issuing sub-prime mortgages that assume that housing prices would only rise. The increased demand for credit induces financial innovations and instruments that circumvent existing regulations. Inevitably, the bubble bursts. The history of financial crises teaches that policy reforms and new regulations cannot prevent future financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Yochanan Shachmurove, 2010. "The Next Financial Crisis," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-027, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:10-027
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    File URL: https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/filevault/working-papers/10-027.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & John H. Boyd, 2009. "Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2009/141, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alicia García Herrero & Pedro del Río, 2003. "Financial stability and the design of monetary policy," Working Papers 0315, Banco de España.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    8. Klomp, Jeroen, 2010. "Causes of banking crises revisited," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 72-87, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Radislav Jovovic & Nebojsa Jovovic, 2013. "Understanding Shadow Banking And It'S Role In The Recent Financial Crisis," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(1), pages 75-84.
    2. Yochanan Shachmurove, 2012. "Financial Crises And Econonomic Institutions An Institutional Account Of The Usa Financial Crisis," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 8(2), pages 45-52.
    3. Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2012. "The economic and monetary union countries vs. the global crisis," MPRA Paper 37942, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crises; Financial Regulations and Reforms; Banking Panics; Banking Runs; Nineteenth and Twentieth Century Crises; Bankruptcies; Federal Reserve Bank; Subprime Mortgage; Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP); Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO); Mortgage Backed Securities (MBO); Glass-Steagall Act; J.P. Morgan Chase; Bear Stearns; Augustus Heinze; Timothy Geithner; Paul Volcker;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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