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Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Balestri

    (Department of International Economics, Institutions and Development, and Cognitive Science and Communication research Centre, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Raul Caruso

    (Department of Economic Policy and CSEA, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore CESPIC, Catholic University Our Lady of Good Counsel)

Abstract

This research work provides new evidence about the effect of vulnerability to climate change on the likelihood of communal violence, by sorting out regional-specific path- ways. We focus on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia for the period 1995-2016, these regions being particularly exposed to climate effects and characterized predominantly by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of human societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher risk of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is associated to the reduction of conflict risk. Some policy implications were derived that suggest an integrated approach between climate policy-making and social stability efforts, given conditional effects of climate change over the likelihood of communal violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia," Working Papers 1016, European Centre of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University 'Our Lady of Good Counsel'.
    • Handle: RePEc:pea:wpaper:1016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    communal violence; vulnerability; climate change; conflicts; Africa; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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