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On climate variability and civil war in Asia

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  • Gerdis Wischnath
  • Halvard Buhaug

Abstract

Effects of climate change are frequently claimed to be responsible for widespread civil violence. Yet, scientists remain divided on this issue, and recent studies suggest that conflict risk increases with higher rainfall, loss of rainfall, higher temperatures or none of the above. Lack of scientific consensus is driven by differences in data, methods, and samples, but may also reflect a fragile and inconsistent correlation for the habitual spatiotemporal domain, Sub-Saharan Africa post-1980. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-scale empirical evaluation of climate-conflict connections across Asia, the continent with the highest conflict rate per country. We find little evidence that interannual climate variability and anomalies are linked to historical conflict risk in the simple and general manner proposed by some earlier research. Although a significant parameter coefficient can be obtained under certain specifications, the direction and magnitude of the climate effects are inconsistent and sensitive to research design. Instead, Asian civil wars share central features with violent events elsewhere, proving the main correlates of contemporary armed conflict to be economic and socio-political rather than climatological. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gerdis Wischnath & Halvard Buhaug, 2014. "On climate variability and civil war in Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 709-721, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:4:p:709-721
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0
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    3. Ore Koren, 2017. "Hunger Games: Food Security and Strategic Preemptive Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 253, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Erin Llwyd Owain & Mark Andrew Maslin, 2018. "Assessing the relative contribution of economic, political and environmental factors on past conflict and the displacement of people in East Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. H. Buhaug & J. Nordkvelle & T. Bernauer & T. Böhmelt & M. Brzoska & J. Busby & A. Ciccone & H. Fjelde & E. Gartzke & N. Gleditsch & J. Goldstone & H. Hegre & H. Holtermann & V. Koubi & J. Link & P. Li, 2014. "One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 391-397, December.
    6. Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia," Working Papers 1016, European Centre of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University 'Our Lady of Good Counsel'.
    7. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    8. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    9. Zorzeta Bakaki, 2021. "Climate Variability and Transnational Migration: A Dyadic Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Quansheng Ge & Mengmeng Hao & Fangyu Ding & Dong Jiang & Jürgen Scheffran & David Helman & Tobias Ide, 2022. "Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    11. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    12. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    14. André Tashi Gasser & Bruno Lanz, 2023. "Climate change, temperature extremes, and conflict: Evidence from mainland Southeast Asia," IRENE Working Papers 23-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
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    16. Holley E. Hansen & Stephen C. Nemeth & Jacob A. Mauslein, 2020. "Ethnic political exclusion and terrorism: Analyzing the local conditions for violence," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 280-300, May.

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