IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/rf724.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows

Author

Listed:
  • Aksoy, Ozan
  • Yıldırım, Sinan

Abstract

In this study we propose a Dirichlet-multinomial regression model and a Bayesian estimation method to analyse dynamic migration networks whereby the nodes are the origins and destinations, and the edges are the number of people migrating between the two over time. We apply this model to analyse 25,632,876 migration instances that take place between Turkey's 81 provinces from 2009 to 2018. We quantify the associations of economic, physical, social, political, and network factors with migration. We find that economic prosperity and population in and the spatial distance between the origin and destination, as well as network characteristics such as reciprocity, province popularity and centrality are important predictors of migration. We also find that electoral distance between provinces and the strength of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) in a province are associated with migration. The proportion of Kurds in a province has no sizeable association with in- and out-migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Aksoy, Ozan & Yıldırım, Sinan, 2020. "A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows," SocArXiv rf724, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:rf724
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/rf724
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5eed0c2e145b1a011f52cf46/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/rf724?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Bell & Salut Muhidin, 2009. "Cross-National Comparisons of Internal Migration," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-30, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Jul 2009.
    2. Borjas, George J. & Bronars, Stephen G. & Trejo, Stephen J., 1992. "Self-selection and internal migration in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 159-185, September.
    3. Poot, Jacques & Alimi, Omoniyi & Cameron, Michael P. & Maré, David C., 2016. "The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 36, pages 63-86.
    4. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Maite Alguacil & Joan Serafí Bernat-Martí, 2017. "New patterns in the locational choice of immigrants in Spain," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 1834-1855, October.
    6. Ayse Gedik, 1997. "Internal Migration In Turkey, 1965–1985: Test Of Conflicting Findings In The Literature," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 170-179, September.
    7. Levy, Moshe, 2010. "Scale-free human migration and the geography of social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4913-4917.
    8. Ismet Koc & Attila Hancioglu & Alanur Cavlin, 2008. "Demographic Differentials and Demographic Integration of Turkish and Kurdish Populations in Turkey," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(4), pages 447-457, August.
    9. Ayse Nilay Evcil & Gulay Basarir Kiroplu & Vedia Dokmeci, 2006. "Regional Migration in Turkey: Its Directions and Determinants," ERSA conference papers ersa06p320, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Ali GÖKHAN & Alpay FILIZTEKIN, 2008. "The Determinants of Internal Migration In Turkey," EcoMod2008 23800044, EcoMod.
    11. Tak Wing Chan & Morag Henderson & Maria Sironi & Juta Kawalerowicz, 2017. "Understanding the Social and Cultural Bases of Brexit," DoQSS Working Papers 17-15, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    12. Burcin Yazgi & Vedia Dokmeci & Kerem Koramaz & Gulay Kiroglu, 2014. "Impact of Characteristics of Origin and Destination Provinces on Migration: 1995-2000," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 1182-1198, June.
    13. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
    14. Theil, Henri, 1969. "A Multinomial Extension of the Linear Logit Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-259, October.
    15. Bruce A Desmarais & Skyler J Cranmer, 2012. "Statistical Inference for Valued-Edge Networks: The Generalized Exponential Random Graph Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, January.
    16. Fields, Gary S, 1976. "Labor Force Migration, Unemployment and Job Turnover," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 407-415, November.
    17. Paulo Guimarães & Richard C. Lindrooth, 2007. "Controlling for overdispersion in grouped conditional logit models: A computationally simple application of Dirichlet-multinomial regression," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 439-452, July.
    18. Schwartz, Aba, 1973. "Interpreting the Effect of Distance on Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(5), pages 1153-1169, Sept.-Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are migrants more skilled than non-migrants? Repeat, return, and same-employer migrants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 830-849, November.
    2. Brian Cushing & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Crossing boundaries and borders: Regional science advances in migration modelling," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Raymond J. G. M. Florax & David A. Plane (ed.), Fifty Years of Regional Science, pages 317-338, Springer.
    3. Manon Domingues Dos Dantos, 1999. "Le pouvoir équilibrant de l'émigration," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 14(3), pages 91-128.
    4. Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
    5. Parker Elliott, 2020. "Migration Patterns in Eastern Europe and the World: A Gravity Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 66-79, June.
    6. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    7. Yang Cheng & Yuxia Lv & Mark Rosenberg & Linke Hou, 2018. "Decision Making of Non-Agricultural Work by Rural Residents in Weifang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    8. Dominique M. Gross & Nicolas Schmitt, 2006. "Why do Low- and High-Skill Workers Migrate? Flow Evidence from France," CESifo Working Paper Series 1797, CESifo.
    9. Murard, Elie, 2017. "Less Welfare or Fewer Foreigners? Immigrant Inflows and Public Opinion towards Redistribution and Migration Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 10805, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Corneo, Giacomo & Neidhöfer, Guido, 2021. "Income redistribution and self-selection of immigrants," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Biavaschi, Costanza & Elsner, Benjamin, 2013. "Let's Be Selective about Migrant Self-Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 7865, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Emily Rauscher & Byeongdon Oh, 2021. "Going Places: Effects of Early U.S. Compulsory Schooling Laws on Internal Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(2), pages 255-283, April.
    13. Jens Ruhose, 2015. "Microeconometric Analyses on Economic Consequences of Selective Migration," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 61.
    14. Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Implicit Discrimination in Hiring – Real World Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0705, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    15. Benoît Schmutz & Modibo Sidibé, 2019. "Frictional Labour Mobility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1779-1826.
    16. Hubert Jayet, 1996. "L'analyse économique des migrations, une synthèse critique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(2), pages 193-226.
    17. Linnea Polgreen & Nicole Simpson, 2011. "Happiness and International Migration," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 819-840, October.
    18. Nicola D. Coniglio & Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga, 2009. "Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: The Perverse Effect of Illegality on Skills," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 641-657, November.
    19. Catherine Y. Co & Ira N. Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2000. "Returns to returning," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 57-79.
    20. Benoit Schmutz & Modibo Sidibé & Elie Vidal-Naquet, 2021. "Why Are Low-Skilled Workers Less Mobile? The Role of Mobility Costs and Spatial Frictions," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 142, pages 283-304.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:rf724. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.