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An Update of the OECD International Trade Equations

Author

Listed:
  • Myriam Morin

    (Direction Générale du Trésor)

  • Cyrille Schwellnus

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments. The set of countries covered by the estimations has been significantly enlarged, with estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and trade prices presented for 41 countries, including countries that have recently joined the OECD (Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia) and major emerging countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). Reflecting the heterogeneity of countries included in the estimations, procedures for grouping them have been modified to allow for country specifics as much as possible. Structural breaks over the estimation period – which now typically covers the mid-1980s to 2012 and includes the global trade collapse of 2009 – are dealt with by the flexible modelling of deterministic trends, including the allowance for several rather than single trend reversals. Une mise à jour des équations de commerce international de l'OCDE Ce document fournit une description détaillée du travail de ré-estimation et re-spécification des équations de volume et de prix du commerce international qui sont utilisées dans le Département des affaires économiques de l'OCDE pour analyser et prévoir l'évolution du commerce international. L'ensemble des pays couverts par les estimations a été considérablement élargi : les estimations des facteurs affectant la performance à l'exportation, la pénétration des importations et les prix du commerce sont présentées pour 41 pays, y compris les pays qui ont récemment adhéré à l'OCDE (Chili, Estonie, Israël et Slovénie) et les grands pays émergents (Argentine, Brésil, Chine, Inde, Indonésie, Russie et Afrique du Sud). Afin de mieux refléter l'hétérogénéité des pays inclus dans les estimations, les procédures de regroupement des pays ont été modifiées pour prendre en compte les spécificités des pays autant que possible. Les ruptures structurelles au cours de la période d'estimation - qui maintenant couvre généralement le milieu des années 1980 jusqu’à 2012 et désormais comprend l'effondrement du commerce mondial de 2009 - sont traitées par la modélisation flexible de tendances déterministes qui permet de multiples points d’inflexion plutôt qu’un point unique d’inversion de tendance.

Suggested Citation

  • Myriam Morin & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2014. "An Update of the OECD International Trade Equations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1129, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1129-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jz2bxbkrxmv-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    2. Jérôme Brezillon & Stéphanie Guichard & Dave Turner, 2010. "Trade Linkages in the OECD Trade System," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 811, OECD Publishing.
    3. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    4. Nigel Pain & Annabelle Mourougane & Franck Sédillot & Laurence Le Fouler, 2005. "The New OECD International Trade Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 440, OECD Publishing.
    5. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Rachel Szymanski & Viktor Tsyrennikov & Hong Yang, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?," IMF Working Papers 2017/058, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alexei Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2018. "Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 805-836, December.
    3. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 269-267.
    4. Antoine Berthou & Emannuel Dhyne, 2018. "Exchange rate movements,firm-level exports and heterogeneity," Working Paper Research 334, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Mr. Alexei P Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2016. "China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks," IMF Working Papers 2016/051, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commerce international; prévisions de commerce; trade; trade elasticity; trade forecasting; élasticité du commerce;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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