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Can population projections be used for sensitivity tests on policy models?

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Author Info

  • John Bryant

    () (The Treasury)

Abstract

Many policy models require assumptions about future population trends. Sensitivity tests for these assumptions are normally carried out by comparing population projection variants. This paper outlines some of the conditions that variant-based sensitivity tests must meet if they are to be informative. It then describes four common situations where these conditions are not met, so that conventional sensitivity tests are not informative. The solution, the paper argues, is stochastic population projections.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2003/03-07/twp03-07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 03/07.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:03/07

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Related research

Keywords: Demography; Sensitivity testing; Population projections; Policy modelling;

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References

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  1. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1992. "Stochastic population forecasts and their uses," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-391, November.
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Cited by:
  1. John Bryant, 2003. "The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/27, New Zealand Treasury.

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