Can population projections be used for sensitivity tests on policy models?
AbstractMany policy models require assumptions about future population trends. Sensitivity tests for these assumptions are normally carried out by comparing population projection variants. This paper outlines some of the conditions that variant-based sensitivity tests must meet if they are to be informative. It then describes four common situations where these conditions are not met, so that conventional sensitivity tests are not informative. The solution, the paper argues, is stochastic population projections.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 03/07.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
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Demography; Sensitivity testing; Population projections; Policy modelling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-MAC-2003-07-10 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1992. "Stochastic population forecasts and their uses," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-391, November.
- John Bryant, 2003. "The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/27, New Zealand Treasury.
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