This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Can population projections be used for sensitivity tests on policy models?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
John Bryant () (The Treasury)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Many policy models require assumptions about future population trends. Sensitivity tests for these assumptions are normally carried out by comparing population projection variants. This paper outlines some of the conditions that variant-based sensitivity tests must meet if they are to be informative. It then describes four common situations where these conditions are not met, so that conventional sensitivity tests are not informative. The solution, the paper argues, is stochastic population projections.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2003/03-07/twp03-07.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 03/07.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:03/07

Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Geraldine Bruin).

Related research
Keywords: Demography Sensitivity testing Population projections Policy modelling

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1992. "Stochastic population forecasts and their uses," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-391, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Bryant, 2003. "The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/27, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also covers the most complete directory of Economics departments and institutes, EDIRC.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.